The tip of
the iceberg.

Some of what makes ECRI unique.
Check out interviews, learn about the cycle and more  

Media & The Column.

Interviews, articles and our own public commentary.

Interviews & articles.

ECRI in the media.


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The Column.

A home for our public commentary.

A sampling of our thought leadership.

Meet the business cycle.

What’s a business cycle?
Business cycles consist of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in the level of economic activity experienced by market-oriented economies.

Simply put, a business cycle is the inherent ebb and flow of such economies. Yet most are unaware that they are swimming in this environment.

Indeed, it’s been said that it takes a very intelligent and non-parochial fish to realize that its environment is wet.

They’re a type of fluctuation.
Business cycles are a type of fluctuation in aggregate economic activity (target below) in market-oriented economies.
They consist of expansions and recessions.
They consist of simultaneous expansions in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions.
Their changes are recurrent, but not periodic.
A business cycle has a rhythm of its own. It can last from a year to more than a decade.
They can’t be divided.
A business cycle cannot be split up into shorter cycles of similar character and magnitude.
What about turning points and leading indicators?
Turning points are the moments when the cycle starts to change direction.

They’re a focus of our research and mark key moments of risk and opportunity for decision makers.

To avoid getting surprised by turning points, our research group pioneered the development of leading indicators. Over more than half a century, we have refined them into a comprehensive framework that lets us prepare you for cycle turning points and protect you from surprises.

Supporting our advisory services.

Exclusive resources for clients.
All major developed and developing economies.
After pioneering the development of leading indicators, we began developing international indicators in the 1970s, and now monitor cycles in 22 countries.
Proprietary indexes monitor cycles across the globe.
ECRI monitors 100+ different indexes, covering inflation, economic growth, and employment for all key regions and countries around the world.

Clients have access to our full array of index data.
Client reports call out risks and opportunities.
Updates directional shifts in our outlook to facilitate discussion around specific client concerns.

Client reports also share new research into topical cyclical and structural concerns.

Ready to sight turning points ahead of the crowd?

Get ahead of key cycles, today.

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