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Top Questions

ECRI helps clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. We partner with them to integrate our unique cycle insights into their decision-making process.
Our century-long tradition of business cycle research is informed by the fundamental drivers of economic cycles. In contrast, most economists who rely on models based on what has happened in the recent past to predict the near future. Their approach may work for a while – until the critical moment when a turning point approaches. This is because extrapolating from the recent past is a sure-fire recipe for being surprised by the next turn. ECRI’s advanced leading indicator approach generates reliable insights that are crucial for the ongoing management of cycle risk.

Unlike agenda-driven “experts” on the economy, ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan. We are focused on objectively calling cycle turns using our array of leading indexes, repeatable process and long institutional memory.

The difference in ECRI’s approach is also borne out by our unrivaled real-time record, which you can see from 2015 to the present.
Cyclical risk rises and falls over the course of the business cycle. We help clients monitor the development of these directional shifts so they can better time critical decisions – including asset allocation and business management.
Yes. Part of our onboarding process is reviewing the cyclical nature of client exposures and determining how to monitor and anticipate related turning points. In some cases, where the client is a market leader in a sector, we can develop new, targeted leading indexes.
Our research group has been studying recessions for three generations, spanning a century. The first generation defined the business cycle, including recession. The second pioneered the development of leading indicators and composite indexes. In more recent decades, our team has moved that work much farther forward than most realize, refining a repeatable process that has helped us establish an unrivaled track record.

See our real-time track record from 2015 to the present.
Yes. We can arrange one-on-one meetings to explain our advisory services in detail, including questions about our research and engagement process.

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Background & Methodology

ECRI insights about shifting cyclical risk are grounded in our array of leading indexes, repeatable process, and long institutional memory.
Business cycles consist of the alternating periods of expansion and contraction in the level of economic activity experienced by market-oriented economies.

Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER’s behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee’s senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 21 other countries.

Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 22 countries. Growth rate cycles consist of the alternating periods of upswings and downswings in the economy’s rate of growth.
ECRI clients have access to all ECRI cycle chronologies. Academic researchers can contact us for cycle chronologies too.
Both theoretically and empirically, ECRI’s leading indexes are superior for managing cycle risk in real-time. Furthermore, ECRI maintains multiple specialized leading indexes for each economy, and especially for the major developing economies, including China and India, for both of which we were the first to develop leading indexes.

More importantly, ECRI has been studying economic cycles – and forecasting recessions and recoveries – longer and more reliably than anyone, anywhere, and our methods aren’t taught anywhere in the world.

Our Services

We are happy to speak with you directly about our client services. Please contact us via e-mail or phone and we’ll set up a call, video conference or in-person meeting.

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We are continually updating and releasing new information to our clients through our client website and advisory meetings.
ECRI principals make presentations primarily to, and on behalf of, our clients.
Our ability to call the economy’s turning points has made ECRI a trusted advisor of Fortune 500 companies, major asset managers and government agencies on all six continents. We help our clients manage cyclical risk, alerting them to directional shifts in the business cycle so they can better time critical decisions whether they involve asset management, hiring, production and pricing, or monetary policy.


ECRI Co-founders, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, and other researchers as needed.
Just let us know what time works for you and your colleagues, and we will proactively reach as needed. Sessions may also be scheduled via your online client Dashboard.
All advisory sessions are different, but common themes include addressing a client’s sensitivities on specific cycle risk. We also discuss the updated cyclical outlook and address counter views to help establish conviction. A back-and-forth dialogue is encouraged and often times is where the best ideas emerge.
The conversations cut through confusion and noise surrounding the cyclical outlook. This allows our clients to take advantage of cyclical risks and opportunities before the consensus. Whether it’s in the markets or business strategy.
Yes. We encourage full teams to join the advisory sessions.

The Dashboard

Ability to schedule advisory sessions
ECRI reports, including curation options
ECRI database for download in Excel
Charting capabilities
22-country snapshot of where ECRI diverges from the consensus

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