ECRI helps clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. We partner with them to integrate our unique cycle insights into their decision-making process.

Our century-long tradition of business cycle research is informed by the fundamental drivers of economic cycles. In contrast, most economists who rely on models based on what has happened in the recent past to predict the near future. Their approach may work for a while – until the critical moment when a turning point approaches. This is because extrapolating from the recent past is a sure-fire recipe for being surprised by the next turn. ECRI’s advanced leading indicator approach generates reliable insights that are crucial for the ongoing management of cycle risk.

Unlike agenda-driven “experts” on the economy, ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan. We are focused on objectively calling cycle turns using our array of leading indexes, repeatable process and long institutional memory.

The difference in ECRI’s approach is also borne out by our unrivaled real-time record, which you can see from 2015 to the present.

Cyclical risk rises and falls over the course of the business cycle. We help clients monitor the development of these directional shifts so they can better time critical decisions – including asset allocation and business management.

Yes. Part of our onboarding process is reviewing the cyclical nature of client exposures and determining how to monitor and anticipate related turning points. In some cases, where the client is a market leader in a sector, we can develop new, targeted leading indexes.

Our research group has been studying recessions for three generations, spanning a century. The first generation defined the business cycle, including recession. The second pioneered the development of leading indicators and composite indexes. In more recent decades, our team has moved that work much farther forward than most realize, refining a repeatable process that has helped us establish an unrivaled track record.

See our real-time track record from 2015 to the present.

Yes. We can arrange one-on-one meetings to explain our advisory services in detail, including questions about our research and engagement process.

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