Our century-long tradition of business cycle research is informed by the fundamental drivers of economic cycles. In contrast, most economists who rely on models based on what has happened in the recent past to predict the near future. Their approach may work for a while – until the critical moment when a turning point approaches. This is because extrapolating from the recent past is a sure-fire recipe for being surprised by the next turn. ECRI’s advanced leading indicator approach generates reliable insights that are crucial for the ongoing management of cycle risk.
Unlike agenda-driven “experts” on the economy, ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan. We are focused on objectively calling cycle turns using our array of leading indexes, repeatable process and long institutional memory.
The difference in ECRI’s approach is also borne out by our unrivaled real-time record, which you can see from 2015 to the present.