Our study of cycles began three generations ago, in the 1920s, when the business cycle itself was first defined by Wesley Mitchell, who co-founded the NBER.
Mitchell’s protege and our Co-founder, Geoffrey Moore, developed the first leading indicators of recession and recovery in 1950. In the late 1960s, the U.S. Department of Commerce adopted Moore’s leading index as its main forecasting gauge.
After more than a decade of research into economic cycles, including inflation and international cycles, at Columbia Business School, Moore’s team of researchers founded ECRI in 1996. Since then we’ve continued to expand our risk management capabilities for 22 economies.