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An approach based on a century of experience.

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Decades of experience. An unrivaled record of predictions.

Standing on the shoulders of giants.

Our study of cycles began three generations ago, in the 1920s, when the business cycle itself was first defined by Wesley Mitchell, who co-founded the NBER.

Mitchell’s protege and our Co-founder, Geoffrey Moore, developed the first leading indicators of recession and recovery in 1950. In the late 1960s, the U.S. Department of Commerce adopted Moore’s leading index as its main forecasting gauge.

After more than a decade of research into economic cycles, including inflation and international cycles, at Columbia Business School, Moore’s team of researchers founded ECRI in 1996. Since then we’ve continued to expand our risk management capabilities for 22 economies.
“ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.”
The Economist

A robust cyclical framework,
rather than models.

Tried and true methods, supported by a hundred years of experience.

Most models fail at cycle turning points because linear relationships cannot navigate nonlinear dynamics.

Our specialized leading indexes are designed to foresee precisely those turning points.

This level of detailed understanding allows us to assess cycle risk better than anyone else we know of.
Our team maintains and monitors a unique array of proprietary indexes designed to track the interplay of cyclical forces in the U.S. and abroad.

That is why we are the world’s leading authority on business cycles.

This information feeds into the development of our insights around growth and inflation cycles.
Our principals are the most knowledgeable experts on business cycles in the world.

They are available exclusively to clients to help them integrate ECRI insights into their decision-making processes.

A comprehensive cyclical framework.

There is no holy grail of economic forecasting.

Understanding the interrelationship of many cycles requires a deep understanding of how they interact.

Our cyclical framework covers key sectors of the economy around growth and inflation. For the U.S. economy alone, we have more than a dozen leading indexes to track various sectors. This framework also applies to 21 other economies.

This information, combined with our institutional knowledge, yields powerful insights that help our clients navigate cycle risk.

Manage risk before it hits the headlines.

Foresight: Anticipate what’s coming.
Forecasting: The state of the art.
ECRI alerts you to directional changes in the cycle before they happen, keeping in mind client-specific sensitivities.

You’ll have access to our experts, outlook reports, and indexes.

We predict economic cycle inflection points well before the consensus, giving you an edge over your competitors.
Forecasting: The state of the art.
We are longtime students of the business cycle.

Since the very first leading index was created by ECRI co-founder Dr. Geoffrey H. Moore, we have been steadily advancing our cyclical research, and have developed a sophisticated analytical framework.

ECRI’s highly nuanced “many-cycles” view tracks the complex cyclical dynamics of the global economy.

Clients have exclusive access to our unique framework and our experienced experts.

ECRI helps you ask the right questions.

Check out how we support your decision making process.

Advisory sessions provide customized expert analysis.

A time to address concerns about the cycle’s impact on your bottom line.

You’ll have direct access to ECRI principals to discuss nuances of the economic outlook, your specific questions, and more.

Reports support deep dives into cyclical developments.

Early warnings about directional shifts in our outlook facilitate discussion around your specific concerns.

In addition to updating our outlook, ECRI reports share new research into topical cyclical and structural concerns.

An exhaustive knowledge base delivers perspective.

Our institutional knowledge is unique: it reaches back to the post-civil-war U.S. economy, and spans dozens of international economies.

From buggy whips to computer chips, it’s the economic cycle that counts.

Advisory sessions provide customized expert analysis.

Reports support deep dives into cyclical developments.

An exhaustive knowledge base delivers perspective.

A time to address concerns about the cycle’s impact on your bottom line.

You’ll have direct access to ECRI principals to discuss nuances of the economic outlook, your specific questions, and more.
Early warnings about directional shifts in our outlook facilitate discussion around your specific concerns.

In addition to updating our outlook, ECRI reports share new research into topical cyclical and structural concerns.
Our institutional knowledge is unique: it reaches back to the post-civil-war U.S. economy, and spans dozens of international economies.

From buggy whips to computer chips, it’s the economic cycle that counts.

The Dashboard:
Cyclical mission control.

Clients use the Dashboard to schedule advisory sessions and access our research.
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Cycle intelligence 
Customization  
Search, sort & filter  

Cycle intelligence at your fingertips.

Ask a question and get an informed answer. We work with you to address specific areas of inquiry, and our research team responds with tailor-made analysis.

These exchanges also serve as a basis for discussion during advisory sessions.

Customize our research to your process.

The Dashboard adapts to your needs.

Whether you’re focused on the Americas, Europe or Asia, the Dashboard lets you prioritize how you track related research.

You can customize the Dashboard by having as many (or as few) widgets as you like, organized in a way that dovetails with your workflow.

Making ECRI all about you.

The Dashboard is an easy way to customize your ECRI engagement.

Widgets allow you to search, sort, and filter, so the things that really matter to you come to the surface.

The Dashboard is also a quick way to get access to our experts or schedule advisory sessions.

Ready to sight turning points ahead of the crowd?

Get ahead of key cycles, today.
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