A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

ECRI Professional Services

ECRI professional services deliver a clear view of the path ahead. Forewarned of upcoming turning points in economic and inflation cycles, our members have the clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.

Investment Managers

For decades, investment managers have looked to us to navigate cyclical shifts in market perceptions. This has typically enabled them to lower risk, increase returns, and outperform their peers. A 5% increase in annual returns for our members is not unusual - $500 million on a $10 billion portfolio.

Business Executives

Business executives use ECRI to improve the timing of their critical tactical decisions such as building or reducing inventory and adjusting pricing and staffing levels. Members are prepared for the economy's swings – not surprised by them – and therefore succeed when their competition stumbles.

Government Policymakers

Government policymakers can use ECRI to improve the timing of policy decisions. Since monetary policy typically lags economic activity and fiscal policy must be sensitive to the cyclical outlook, a reliable assessment of turning point risk should produce smoother macroeconomic outcomes.

ECRI's services are designed to deliver a clear, actionable cyclical outlook. It includes all of the information you need to comprehend the evolving dynamics of a complex global economy.

Private Advisory Sessions

Access to ECRI principals – regular video/telephone conferences and in-person meetings to discuss nuances of the economic outlook alongside your specific concerns.

Learn More

Proprietary Database

Access to all of ECRI's leading indexes covering 21 economies delivered to your desktop in real time.

Professional Reports

U.S. and International Essentials, Focus and Weekly Updates.

Learn more about Professional Reports and download sample excerpts

Professional A Global

Private advisory sessions
Professional reports
Proprietary database
Up to 20 users, up to three locations

Professional A

Private advisory sessions
Professional reports
Proprietary database
Up to 10 users in one location

Professional B

Professional reports
Proprietary database
Up to 3 users in one location
Note: Private advisory sessions are not included

Contact Us

pro@businesscycle.com
New York: +1 (212) 557-7788●London: +44 (207) 060-1223

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Contact ECRI

Email

pro@businesscycle.com

Phone

New York: + 1 (212) 557-7788
London: + 44 (207) 060-1223

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FAQ

Testimonial

In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.

- Grant's Interest Rate Observer

Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011

- The New York Times

ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005

- The Economist

Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.

- ECRI Professional Member

ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.

- Sydney Morning Herald

ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.

- Harvard Business Review

Our Track Record

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

View the Timeline