Recession - Recovery Watch
ECRI leading indexes turn before the economy does, allowing us to presage business cycle inflection points well before the consensus. We closely monitor over 100 proprietary cyclical indexes, and our written reports for professional members deliver in-depth, nuanced analyses of shifting risks in economic growth and inflation worldwide.
We publicly release the latest data on two leading indexes of growth and inflation that are presented in this basic U.S. economic dashboard.
- The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of economic activity is available every Friday.
- The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) is a monthly leading index of inflation.
Check on these two indexes every Friday: The FIG shows how hot the economy is running; the WLI tells you if it's about to race ahead or stall. If either plunges or rises convincingly, it signals a shift in the risk of a turning point.
Read Mr. Greenspan's Blind Spot
WEEKLY INDEXES(GROWTH RATES,%)
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is a composite leading index that anticipates cyclical turning points in U.S. economic activity by 2-3 quarters. Cycles in economic activity are captured by our U.S. Weekly Coincident Index, which is a comprehensive measure of the economy's current state, tracking indicators of production, employment, income, and sales.
MONTHLY LEADING, COINCIDENT AND
LAGGING INDEXES (GROWTH RATES, %)
These indexes summarize leading indicators that turn before the U.S. economy does (monthly version of WLI, top line), coincident indicators that turn in step with it (U.S. Coincident Index, middle line) and lagging indicators that turn after the economy does (U.S. Lagging Index, bottom line). The vertical shaded areas are U.S. growth rate cycle downturns. Horizontal dashes near the bottom mark off U.S. business cycle recessions.