Reports & Indexes
We help our clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. ECRI has been studying economic cycles – and forecasting recessions and recoveries – longer and more reliably than anyone, anywhere. We do this by making sense of the often-confusing big picture through unique cyclical insights based on more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 22 countries.
ECRI leading indexes turn before the economy does, allowing us to see the signs of economic cycle inflection points well before the consensus. We closely monitor our large array of proprietary cyclical indexes, and provide written reports and consultation to clients, delivering in-depth, nuanced analyses of shifting risk in economic growth and inflation worldwide.
As a public service, and as an example of our work, ECRI publicly releases limited data on one of our leading indexes:
- The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of economic activity is available every Friday after it has been shared with clients.
- The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) is a monthly leading index of inflation.
Cycle Dashboard
Check on these two indexes every Friday: The FIG shows how hot the economy is running; the WLI tells you if it's about to race ahead or stall. If either plunges or rises convincingly, it signals a shift in the risk of a turning point.
LAGGING INDEXES (GROWTH RATES, %)
About ECRI Reports
Testimonial
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI's array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
This approach works like a charm.
Your work stands alone in the industry. I wholeheartedly value and endorse your service!
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
FAQ
- How do I read the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) and Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) "dials" shown on the public Reports and Indexes page?
- What is the difference between business cycles, growth rate cycles, and inflation cycles?
- What are the components of ECRI's leading indexes?
- What information do clients get that the public doesn't?
- When does ECRI release its latest data and reports?
- How often are indexes updated?
- What does ECRI do?
- How do I get more information about ECRI client services?