ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI's recessionary outlook, Gross Domestic Income, and how economic growth doesn't really "muddle along" at sustained low rates.
A Framework That Provides Clarity
During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.
The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.
Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? More
Flashback to an April 2008 interview discussing how ECRI's recession call remained intact despite a rise in stock prices and other data. More
November 29, 2011
Full Report: International Cyclical Outlook