A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Recession Update

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI's recessionary outlook, Gross Domestic Income, and how economic growth doesn't really "muddle along" at sustained low rates.


Related Insights

The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 1, 2012

The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.


Related News & Events

Revoking Recession: 48th Time's the Charm?

ECRI May 9, 2012

Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? More


Squaring Higher Stocks with Recession

CNBC October 26, 2011

Flashback to an April 2008 interview discussing how ECRI's recession call remained intact despite a rise in stock prices and other data. More