A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Rises

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a six-week high, while the index's annualized growth rate remained at last week's 28-week low, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 128.4 in the week ended July 8, the highest since May 27, from 127.3 the previous week, originally reported at 127.6.

The index's annualized growth rate remained constant at 1.7 percent, where it has held for the last two weeks, though last week's figure was revised down from 1.8 percent.

The rate stands at its lowest point since Dec. 17, 2010.

The index rose as data released Friday revealed a two-month contraction in New York manufacturing through July, underscoring fears that the tepid pace of recovery may continue.

Other data out Friday revealed that U.S. core inflation had risen more than expected in June, decreasing the chance of a new monetary stimulus since the Federal Reserve's $600 billion bond-buying scheme ended last month.