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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. FIG Slips

U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 97.4 from a downwardly revised 97.5 in September, originally reported as 98.0, according to data released this morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The smoothed annualized growth rate, a comparison of the latest figures to the preceding year's average level, slipped to negative 1.0% from a downwardly revised 0.3% in September, originally reported as 1.0%.

“Thus, U.S. inflation pressures remain restrained, but do not indicate any risk of deflation,” ECRI said in a release.

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