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China's Soft-Landing

Excerpt from International Trader

"...A soft landing is consistent with the findings of Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (www.businesscycle.com), who maintains four different leading indexes for China. ECRI's export index, with a six-month lead time, has been plunging since its September peak. The Chinese industrial production leading index, a broader measure, with an eight-month lead time, peaked in November, and has been declining, too, but less dramatically. The leading index (seven months) topped in November, but is showing "a more gentle throttling back of growth." Finally, the leading home-price-index growth rate, with an 18-month lead time, peaked in April '09, but merely shows "a moderation in the growth of home prices." Still, Achuthan adds, "the bottom won't be until the leading indicators turn back up.""...

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