A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Unemployed Face Years Without Jobs

"...During periods of American economic expansion in the 1950s, ’60s and ’70s, the number of private-sector jobs increased about 3.5 percent a year, according to an analysis of Labor Department data by Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a research firm. During expansions in the 1980s and ’90s, jobs grew just 2.4 percent annually. And during the last decade, job growth fell to 0.9 percent annually.

“The pace of job growth has been getting weaker in each expansion,” Mr. Achuthan said. “There is no indication that this pattern is about to change...."

For more on ECRI's public discussion of this issue please read these short pieces:

CNN - Business Cycle May Suppress Long-term Job Growth, Feb. 5, 2010

NPR - Good News On Jobs, But Will It Last? Dec. 4, 2009

NYT - They don’t make recoveries like they used to, Aug. 29, 2008