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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Impact of Debt Default

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan explains why the economy's vulnerability to shocks goes up and down with the business cycle, and how today, given the cyclical slowdown, shocks carry more risk. Corporate profits are also discussed.


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