News
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Oct 31 2016
Shunted to the Sidelines
For those without a high school diploma, the percentage of Blacks and Hispanics with jobs is back up near record highs, but the majority of non-Hispanic Whites have been jobless for seven long years. More
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Oct 28 2016
U.S. WLI Decreased
U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 138.6, while the growth rate edged down to 8.0%. More
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Oct 26 2016
U.S. WLI Monthly Increased
U.S. WLI (monthly data) increased to 137.0, growth rate rose to 8.0%. More
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Oct 21 2016
Financial Sense
Interview: Recession Risk, The Fed & Fiscal Policy
Slowdown almost 2 years old, but no recession imminent. More
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Oct 21 2016
U.S. WLI Edges Up
U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 139.6, while the growth rate ticks down to 8.8%. More
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Oct 20 2016
Fed Risks Lehman Blunder Repeat as US Recession Storm Gathers
We have been seeing a 'growth-rate' cyclical downturn for the last two years. The longer this goes on, the less wiggle room there is. More
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Oct 19 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Ticks Down
The cyclical downturn in economic growth continues with USCI growth at a 33 month low. More
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Oct 17 2016
"Early" and "Late" Cycle Verdicts are Baseless
It's illogical to assert that the likely duration of an expansion is around six to ten years merely because the last three U.S. expansions lasted that long. More
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Oct 17 2016
The Next Recession Is Coming. Big Deal.
You have to hand it to economists -- they say the darndest things. More
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Oct 14 2016
U.S. WLI Ticked Down
U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 139.6, while the growth rate decreased to 8.8%. More
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Oct 07 2016
Stagflation Lite & Simple Math
Inflation rising as the economy slows, compounded by intractable structural problems. More
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Oct 07 2016
U.S. WLI Increased
U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 139.2, while the growth rate ticked down to 8.7%. More
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Oct 07 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
USFIG rose in September to a 99-month high. More
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Oct 05 2016
Slowest U.S. recovery since WWII?
In terms of GDP growth, this is the slowest expansion on record, but we're in the fourth longest expansion in U.S. history and job growth is higher than during the 2001-07 expansion. More
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Oct 04 2016
Fed Moves in Mysterious Ways
The Fed again runs the risk of falling behind the inflation cycle. More
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Oct 03 2016
Challenge
Published Paper: Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Mistakes
Keys to the Productivity Puzzle More
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