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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

ECRI - Economic Cycle Research Institute

News

NEWS: October 2002

No Housing Bubble to Pop

A leading index of housing prices continues to rise steadily, suggesting no decline in U.S. housing prices ahead. More

Consumers and the Economy

SUSIE GHARIB: Joining us now to talk more about the implications for the economy, Lakshman Achuthan, economist with the here in New York. Hi, Lakshman. Nice to see you. More

Whatever it is, it isn't deflation

"...Furthering the theme of no deflation yet, the graph below (not shown) plots growth in a leading indicator of the U.S. inflation rate devised by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). More

Weekly Leading Index Rises

A weekly gauge of U.S. economic activity rose last week, lending support to the view that while the economy may be growing at a snail's pace, it is unlikely to fall into recession. More

Rediscovering Risk

The sniper murdering at will in the Washington area is a metaphor for the defining characteristic of our new era. It is not terrorism, not an unsteady economy, not the threat of war. It is risk. More

Leaders' Rule Of Thumb

Rules of thumb are easy to use and even easier to misuse. More

Weekly Leading Index Falls

The U.S. economy will grow moderately in the foreseeable future, but battered investor confidence and further corporate layoffs could tip the country back into recession. More

Weak Growth Means Few Jobs

...barring an unexpected shock, the job market does seem likely to improve, particularly over the longer term. More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), meanwhile, said yesterday that the US economy will skirt a return to recession. More

Weekly Leading Index Slips

ECRI gauge of U.S. economy flattish on the week. More

Consumer Sentiment

Following are comments from economists and market experts after the University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in October tumbled to 80.4 from 86.1 in September. More

A Ray of Economic Hope

Does the Fed know something that Wall Street doesn't? More

Improving Job Market?

Economic Cycle Research Institute research points to a recovery in the U.S. labor market. More

U.K. FIG Nudges Higher

Inflationary pressures in Britain rose slightly in August for the second month in a row, a leading research body said on Friday. More

U.S. FIG Rises Further

U.S. inflation pressures jumped in September an ECRI report showed on Friday. More

Weekly Leading Index Falls

Low investor morale is dampening the U.S. economic recovery, but, barring a fresh wave of corporate layoffs, the country is unlikely to slip back into recession, according to ECRI. More

Eurozone FIG Rising

Price pressures in the euro zone rose in August as inflationary pressures in Germany, Italy and Spain increased, an index compiled by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. More