News
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Jun 21 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Ticks Up
Despite an uptick in coincident data, the year-and-a-half old cyclical downturn in economic growth continues. More
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Jun 17 2016
The Rate Hike Cycle that Wasn't
Before Yellen's recent press conference, our research showed that the Fed's next move may well be a rate cut. More
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Jun 10 2016
Purple Squirrel Update
The difference between the number hired and the number of job openings is not just shrinking, but has plunged by almost minus three-quarters of a million jobs. More
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Jun 09 2016
"It's the economy, stupid!"
The Fed doesn't seem to realize that its rate hike plans are colliding with the economic cycle. More
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Jun 06 2016
More Than One Job to Make Ends Meet
Growth in multiple jobholders much faster than single jobholders. More
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Jun 03 2016
More Wage Inflation Deception
"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." More
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Jun 02 2016
Rate Hike "Cycle" Remains Unlikely
Cyclical slowdowns are more widespread globally than at any time in almost 3 years. More
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May 27 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases
U.S. WLI increased to 136.1, growth rate edged up to 6.1%. More
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May 25 2016
Wage Erosion Resumes
Higher inflation eats away at real wage growth. More
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May 23 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Decreased
Year-over-year growth in ECRI's USCI decreased to 1.9%, a 28-month low. More
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May 12 2016
Export Engines Cut Out
We are seeing rampant export price deflation for advanced and emerging economies alike, but even this steep fall in prices has been unable to boost export volumes. More
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May 11 2016
Only Purple Squirrels Need Apply
With job openings at near-record highs, according to the JOLTS data, some see an extraordinarily tight labor market. More
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May 09 2016
Job Growth Downturn Lines Up With GDP Growth Downturn
While economists scratch their heads about the apparent disconnect between GDP growth and job growth, the cyclical reality is that both peaked in early 2015 and remain in cyclical downtrends. More
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May 06 2016
Multiple jobs needed to make ends meet
Multiple jobholders growth much faster than single jobholders. More
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Apr 26 2016
Stalling or Falling?
Gross Domestic Income has been below 2%, the Fed's estimated "stall speed," for ten of the last 14 quarters. More
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Apr 20 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Slips
Year-over-year growth in ECRI's USCI slips to 2.3%. More
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Apr 15 2016
Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments
Minsky conference slides and audio. More
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Apr 13 2016
Fed Faces Stagflation Lite
With sluggish U.S. economic growth slowing further, and inflation on the rise, the Fed is faced with "stagflation lite." More
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Apr 07 2016
New Growth Rate Cycle Peak Date Determined for Japan
New Japanese growth rate cycle date. More
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Mar 24 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Ticks Down
Year-over-year growth in ECRI's USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, ticked down to to 2.3%. More
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