News
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Dec 23 2016
Pinching Productivity
A sustained boost to GDP growth requires productivity-enhancing investment that looks to be missing from CEOs' plans. More
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Dec 16 2016
Only Retirement-Age Whites Gain Jobs Share
Yellen got her wish, but the prime-working-age E/P ratio has fallen for Whites, Asians & Hispanics since pre-recession highs. More
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Dec 02 2016
Multiple Jobs Needed to Make Ends Meet
With wage growth unable to keep pace with inflation, more people need to work multiple lower-paying jobs in order to make ends meet. More
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Nov 30 2016
A Tale of Two Job Markets
Whites now have fewer jobs than nine years ago, while Hispanics, Blacks and Asians together gained all of the net jobs added, and more. More
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Nov 17 2016
All of a Sudden, Inflation Fears Intensify
The upturn in inflation, which ECRI predicted many months ago, has now become a significant concern. More
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Nov 14 2016
Plunging Predictions
The five-year-ahead GDP growth forecast for the U.S. is approaching that of the Eurozone, just 1½ % per the IMF. More
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Nov 04 2016
Cautionary Signs for Consumer Spending
Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP, is critical to the Fed's optimistic view on the economy as it prepares to hike rates in December. More
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Oct 31 2016
Shunted to the Sidelines
For those without a high school diploma, the percentage of Blacks and Hispanics with jobs is back up near record highs, but the majority of non-Hispanic Whites have been jobless for seven long years. More
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Oct 19 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Ticks Down
The cyclical downturn in economic growth continues with USCI growth at a 33 month low. More
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Oct 17 2016
"Early" and "Late" Cycle Verdicts are Baseless
It's illogical to assert that the likely duration of an expansion is around six to ten years merely because the last three U.S. expansions lasted that long. More
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Oct 04 2016
Fed Moves in Mysterious Ways
The Fed again runs the risk of falling behind the inflation cycle. More
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Sep 29 2016
Fed Hold No Surprise
The Fed's decision to hold rates steady in September is no surprise, as weak GDP growth underscores the slowing U.S. economy. More
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Sep 27 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Unchanged
The cyclical downturn in U.S. economic growth continues with USCI growth at a 32-month low. More
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Sep 07 2016
The Brecession Blunder
Only now, with evidence mounting that such a recession hasn't materialized, is there puzzlement about the "Brecession blunder". More
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Aug 31 2016
Amid Structural Lowflation, World Exports Decline
As we first showed in early 2015, and expanded on this summer, trade continues to languish, with year-over-year global export volume growth slipping back below zero. More
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Aug 17 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Unchanged
Year-over-year growth in the USCI, a broad measure of economic activity, remained at a 30-month low. More
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Jul 27 2016
Stagflation Lite Getting Harder to Ignore
ECRI's U.S. Coincident Index growth has been in a clear downtrend since the beginning of 2015. More
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Jul 20 2016
ECRI's Simple Math Goes Global
Weak demographics and productivity growth plague the G7, lowering trend economic growth, which makes cyclical slowdowns more risky. More
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Jun 30 2016
Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors
Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the "productivity puzzle." More
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Jun 29 2016
Weak Business Investment No Surprise, Preceded Brexit
The Fed, counting on investment growth to bolster the economy, has been disappointed, undercutting any "rate hike cycle" plans. More
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