A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

ECRI - Economic Cycle Research Institute

News

NEWS: Inflation

Flat FIG

U.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in February. More

Euro Inflation Pressures Ease

Falling further from its early 2011 high, the EZFIG declined to a 21-month low in its latest reading. More

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 101.2. More

Euro Inflation Pressures Ease

Inflationary pressures in the euro zone slipped further in December. More

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in January. More

U.S. FIG Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in December. More

U.S. FIG Unchanged

U.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge held at 98.3 from a revised 98.3 in October. More

Eurozone FIG Down

Inflation pressures in the euro zone eased to a 13-month low in October. More

U.S. FIG Drops

U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dipped to 99.2 from a revised 99.7 in September, originally reported as 99.9, according to data released Friday. More

US Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Up

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 99.9 from a revised 99.2 in August. More

Eurozone FIG Edges Up

Inflationary pressures in the euro zone edged up in July from June's seven-month low. More

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Down

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge rose to 99.5 from 98.5 in July. More

EZ FIG at 7-month low

Inflationary pressures in the euro zone fell to a seven-month low in June. More

U.S. FIG Drops

U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slid to 101.0 from a revised 102.9 in April. More

Euro price pressures at 29-mth high

Inflationary pressures in the euro zone reached a 29-month high in February. More

U.S. FIG Rises

The ECRI US future inflation gauge continues its rise in March, a trend sure to get noticed by Federal Reserve officials concerned about growing inflation expectations. More

Mr. Greenspan’s Blind Spot

In early March, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was asked to comment about ECRI's long-held criticism that the Fed is chronically behind the curve on monetary policy. More