News
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Oct 05 2015
Three Point Summary of Today's Discussion on Bloomberg
Discussing the U.S. slowdown, World export price deflation and the Fed's Phillips curve approach. More
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Oct 05 2015
The White Queen's Rule
Seven years after the financial crisis - no Fed rate hike seems surreal. More
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Sep 30 2015
Second Half Capitulation
Some are starting to catch on to the slowdown that ECRI's leading indexes flagged at the start of the year. More
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Sep 18 2015
New Growth Rate Cycle Dates Determined for Japan
New cycle dates for Japan. More
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Sep 16 2015
January Flashback: If not now, when?
Eight months after we asked "if not now, when?" the reality is that growth has been slowing all year. That's a fact, not a forecast. More
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Sep 10 2015
Three Highlights from Bloomberg Interview
Discussing the U.S. slowdown, "full employment," and world export price deflation. More
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Sep 04 2015
The Fed Should Boost Rates, But Not Just Yet
Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer should listen to vice chair William Dudley – along with St. Augustine. More
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Aug 17 2015
A Shrinking Trade Pie
Following years of extraordinary policy stimulus, world trade growth has collapsed. More
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Aug 05 2015
Collision Course
The Fed's rate hike plans are on a collision course with the economic cycle. More
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Jul 20 2015
New Business and Growth Rate Cycle Dates Determined, Including the U.S., Japan and Germany
New cycle dates for the U.S., Japan, Germany, Brazil, Switzerland, Austria, Taiwan, New Zealand and South Africa. More
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Jun 11 2015
Simple Math: ½% + ½% = 1%
With productivity growth and potential labor force growth both averaging ½% a year, trend real GDP growth is converging to 1% a year. More
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Jun 11 2015
The "Subpar" Recovery: a Longstanding Misunderstanding
Most believe we've had a "subpar" recovery. But nothing more by way of growth is owed to us by the business cycle. More
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May 27 2015
Eurozone Reflation
An upturn in the Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge presaged the recent upturn in nominal 10-year Bund yields. More
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May 23 2015
Scoping Out a Phantom Recession
"It's been about as weak as it could be without falling into recession," Mr. Achuthan said. More
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May 14 2015
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May 11 2015
ECRI's 2012 U.S. Recession Call Redux
After decades of successful recession and recovery forecasts -- without false alarm -- why was ECRI's September 2011 U.S. recession forecast not followed by a recession? More
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May 11 2015
Oil Price Volatility, Recessions, U.S. Outlook
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV to discuss ECRI's recession call, the implications of oil price volatility, the two-speed economy in the U.S., and more. More
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May 08 2015
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
With the USFIG moving up, underlying inflation pressures have risen a little. More
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May 08 2015
Oil Price Volatility and Recessions
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV this morning to discuss ECRI's recession call and the implications of oil price volatility. More
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May 08 2015
The Greater Moderation
What counts in this fraught environment is not foreboding, but forewarning. More
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