A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Oct 05 2009

    Presentation Notes on Recession and Recovery

    ECRI's managing director, Lakshman Achuthan, shares his presentation notes and slides on the Great Recession and current recovery. More

  • Oct 02 2009

    Economic Recovery Far From Fragile

    An index of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, but its yearly growth rate climbed to a new record high, indicating a smooth recovery in the near-term. More

  • Oct 02 2009

    U.S. FIG at 11-Month High

    A monthly gauge of U.S. inflation pressures continued to rise in September to an 11-month high, suggesting an upswing in prices expected in an economic recovery, a research group said on Friday. More

  • Sep 30 2009

    Fed Likes this "Sweet Spot"

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses the cyclical outlook in the context of today's stories about the Fed's exit strategy and concerns about credit growth in coming months. More

  • Sep 25 2009

    Audio: If recession is over, why don't I feel good?

    Lakshman talks with MPR's Midmorning show, about why we're in recovery and why it takes many months before people start to actually feel the recovery. More

  • Sep 25 2009

    U.S. Economic Recovery is 'Far from Fragile'

    A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth climbed higher in the latest week, while its yearly growth rate reached a new all-time high, reaffirming projections of a brisk, uninterrupted recovery. More

  • Sep 18 2009

    WLI Growth at Record High

    A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose to a level last seen one year ago, while its annual growth rate hit a fresh record high, feeding hopes of a recovery immune to looming threats. More

  • Sep 11 2009

    U.S. Recovery to be Vigorous Despite Fears

    A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth hit a year-high in the latest week, sending its yearly growth rate to an all-time high that points to a more vigorous recovery than consensus has shown. More

  • Sep 06 2009

    Economy this fall

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with CBS about the economy this fall. More

  • Sep 05 2009

    Jobs Report and Recovery

    U.S. economic growth is poised for a stronger snap-back than most expect More

  • Sep 04 2009

    US Poised for Stronger Recovery than Expected

    A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, while its yearly growth rate surged to a 38-year high that suggests the recovery is on track. More

  • Sep 04 2009

    U.S. Future Inflation Gauge at 10-Month High

    A gauge of U.S. inflation pressures rose sharply to a ten-month high in August, indicating that deflation is unlikely under current economic conditions, a research group said on Friday. More

  • Sep 04 2009

    Euro zone deflation threat 'declining'

    Inflation in the euro zone is expected to stabilise further and the threat of deflation in the region is declining, according to a report by the Economic Cycle Research Institute today. More

  • Aug 28 2009

    WLI: No Double Dip

    All leading indexes are not created equal. More

  • Aug 28 2009

    Deficits and Animal Fat

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with John Hockenberry and Femi Oke on The Takeaway this morning about why the deficit projections are very misleading. More

  • Aug 27 2009

    Cyclical perspective on markets and consumer

    ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC for a moment this morning to offer a cyclical perspective to the debate about what’s happening with the stock market, consumer and employment. More

  • Aug 26 2009

    Bernanke reappointed

    Mr Bernanke was slow to recognise the severity of the mortgage meltdown at the heart of the recession. More

  • Aug 21 2009

    Though Analysts Clash, Firm U.S. Recovery at Hand

    A gauge of future economic growth made steady gains in the latest week, sending its yearly growth rate to a fresh 26-year high. More

  • Aug 18 2009

    ECRI Divergence from Consensus Normal

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with WNYC's Andrea Bernstein and Amy Holmes about the surge in the Weekly Leading Index. More

  • Aug 17 2009

    Recession or Recovery?

    ECRI's Achuthan was a guest on NPR's Talk of the Nation, where he discussed why the start of recovery this summer is real, and why it doesn't "feel" much better just yet. (Lakshman Achuthan and Robert More


ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
- Sydney Morning Herald
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction – even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that – lead where things were headed.
- Randall Forsyth, Barron's
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review

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