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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Dec 05 2008

    Recession Worsens, Recovery?

    Recession Worsens, Recovery? More

  • Dec 05 2008

    EZ FIG hits 33-month low

    Euro zone inflationary pressures fell to a near three-year low in October, a forward-looking indicator showed on Friday, suggesting inflation would fall sharply in coming months. More

  • Dec 05 2008

    US Inflation Pressures Fall to 47-Year Low

    U.S. inflation pressures fell in November to their lowest in more than 47 years. More

  • Dec 05 2008

    WLI Suggests Deepening Recession

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth and its annualized growth rate both ticked up in the latest week, but they still suggest the recession will intensify. More

  • Dec 04 2008

    Job cuts mount as year ends

    The nation's job market, in the final month of a brutal 2008, was dealt a savage blow when AT&T, DuPont, Viacom, Credit Suisse and others took another 22,000-plus jobs out of the work force. More

  • Dec 03 2008

    'Beige' Report Should Show Even More Red

    At a year old, the recession is getting long in the tooth. But it only seems to be getting stronger. More

  • Dec 01 2008

    Recession Started Dec. '07

    The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007. More

  • Dec 01 2008

    Dark Days

    Conventional wisdom says it’s darkest before the dawn. The outlook for the global economy is certainly dark now, and appears poised to grow darker in the next few months. More

  • Nov 29 2008

    Jobs Map: Pervasive Job Losses

    ECRI's Achuthan joins CNN's Your $$$$$ special program on jobs to discuss the recessionary jobs market. More

  • Nov 26 2008

    Why Timing is Critical to Stimulus Success

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with CNN about policymaker's plan to jump start economic growth, and why timing is more important than the amount of money spent. More

  • Nov 26 2008

    U.S. Weekly Leading Index in Tailspin

    A measure of future economic growth in the United States fell to its lowest in more than 13 years and its annualized growth rate hit a new low. More

  • Nov 25 2008

    U.S. bailout of Citigroup

    The US government’s massive bailout of Citigroup had an instant impact on the stock market. More

  • Nov 24 2008

    Obama's vast jobs plan: How hard?

    His aim is to add 2.5 million jobs. But job totals are dropping sharply now. More

  • Nov 22 2008

    Obama Offers Plan To Revive Economy

    President-elect Barack Obama set out plans for an ambitious economic stimulus package Saturday. In a radio and Web address, he said things are likely to get worse before they get better and that he ha More

  • Nov 21 2008

    WLI Growth Nose-Diving to Historical New Low

    A measure of future economic growth in the United States fell to its lowest in 13 years and its annualized rate showed U.S. economic growth is sliding at its fastest recorded pace. More

  • Nov 20 2008

    Big Three Depression Risk

    The U.S. auto industry weathered the Great Depression. But there are some fears that its current crisis could cause another one. More

  • Nov 18 2008

    Auto & Financial Industry Bailout Debate

    ECRI’s Achuthan discusses the proposed auto industry bailout in the context of the ongoing recession. More

  • Nov 18 2008

    Radio Interview on Bailouts/Eco Data

    At 2:00 PM (ET) ECRI's Achuthan will have an extended interview with Bloomberg Radio regarding Paulson and Bernanke's testimony on the bailots and the latest economic data. More

  • Nov 18 2008

    Stimulus: Waiting for Obama

    Mass layoffs. A dismal outlook for retailers. The prospect of state budget cuts. An economy in contraction, and forecasts that the decline will accelerate. More

  • Nov 16 2008

    G-20 Can't Change Business Cycle

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with CNN International about any impact that can be expected from the G-20 meeting. More

Testimonial

ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI’s array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
- ECRI Professional Member
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
- ECRI Professional Member
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
- The Economist
           

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