A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Nov 20 2008

    Big Three Depression Risk

    The U.S. auto industry weathered the Great Depression. But there are some fears that its current crisis could cause another one. More

  • Nov 18 2008

    Auto & Financial Industry Bailout Debate

    ECRI’s Achuthan discusses the proposed auto industry bailout in the context of the ongoing recession. More

  • Nov 18 2008

    Radio Interview on Bailouts/Eco Data

    At 2:00 PM (ET) ECRI's Achuthan will have an extended interview with Bloomberg Radio regarding Paulson and Bernanke's testimony on the bailots and the latest economic data. More

  • Nov 18 2008

    Stimulus: Waiting for Obama

    Mass layoffs. A dismal outlook for retailers. The prospect of state budget cuts. An economy in contraction, and forecasts that the decline will accelerate. More

  • Nov 16 2008

    G-20 Can't Change Business Cycle

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with CNN International about any impact that can be expected from the G-20 meeting. More

  • Nov 14 2008

    G-20 Meeting & Weekly Leading Indicators

    Early Friday, ECRI's Achuthan discussed the G-20 meeting and how weekly leading indicators say that economic recovery is not yet in sight. More

  • Nov 14 2008

    Recap of Wild Ride

    ECRI's Achuthan spoke with CNNi about how we got here and what to expect. More

  • Nov 14 2008

    In Sensible Grown-Ups We Trust

    What does a country want in a crisis? Above all, it wants a grown-up in charge. Someone who can calmly deal with the problem and reassure the public on the way through. More

  • Nov 14 2008

    WLI Growth Falling at Fastest Pace in 60 Yrs

    A measure of future economic growth in the United States edged up in the previous week but its annualized growth rate set a fresh record low. More

  • Nov 13 2008

    Shifting U.S. Bailout Terms & Recession Severity

    ECRI's Achuthan discusses the U.S. Treasury's decision to back away from purchasing troubled assets, and what this shift implies about the severity of the recession. More

  • Nov 10 2008

    Perspective on China's $586 Billion Stimulus

    ECRI's Achuthan explains why China needs to have a large stimulus package -- including the "bullwhip effect" -- and the limits of what it can accomplish. More

  • Nov 08 2008

    "V" Shaped Recovery Needed

    ECRI's Achuthan discusses near-term aspects of counter-cyclical policy that may be helpful, including how to increase the likelihood of a "V" shaped recovery that can generate jobs. More

  • Nov 07 2008

    Eurozone future inflation gauge falls to 16-mth low

    A key gauge of euro zone future inflation pressures staged its biggest one-month fall in nearly seven years in September to a 16-month low. More

  • Nov 07 2008

    US FIG Tumbles to 81-Month Low

    Inflation pressures fell in October to an 81-month low, indicating policy-makers should focus on economic growth, a research group said on Friday. More

  • Nov 07 2008

    WLI Growth at Fresh All-Time Low

    A measure of future economic growth in the United States fell to a 12 and a half-year low and its annualized growth rate set a fresh record low, indicating a severe recession is underway. More

  • Nov 07 2008

    Layoffs hit every corner

    The first week of November has been brutal for the job market, with nearly 15,000 announced job cuts from a slew of companies across multiple industries. More

  • Nov 06 2008

    Obama & the Recession

    ECRI's Achuthan spoke with CNN about the limited impact that a President can have on the near-term business cycle, and how policy makers could work to create a more "v-shaped" recovery. More

  • Nov 06 2008

    U.S. Retailers & Stunned Consumers

    ECRI's Banerji spoke with Reuters about the latest batch of news from retailers and the prospects of an economic upturn in the near-term. More

  • Nov 03 2008

    JoC-ECRI Index & 2009 Recovery Prospects

    Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks with Bloomberg's Matt Miller in New York about the decline in commodity prices, and the outlook for the U.S. and gl More

  • Nov 03 2008

    Commodities Send Signal Before Long Recession

    A record plunge in commodities may signal the U.S. is headed for the longest recession since 1981, just after Ronald Reagan became president and the economy began a 16-month slump. More

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ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
- ECRI Professional Member
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
"eerily accurate"
- National Public Radio

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