A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Feb 06 2009

    U.S. Economy Will Not Recover Soon

    A measure of U.S. future economic growth and its annualized rate fell in the previous week, indicating the economy will not recover in the near future. More

  • Feb 02 2009

    No Objective Signs of Upturn

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with Forbes' Bob Lenzner about the economy and markets. More

  • Feb 02 2009

    Banks and the Bailout

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with Kerri Miller at Minnesota Public Radio about the bank bailouts, and broader efforts to support the financial sector and the economy. More

  • Jan 30 2009

    WLI Level Dips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped in the latest week while its annualized growth rate inched up but both still indicate the downward spiral of the economy has not stopped. More

  • Jan 29 2009

    Illusion of Control

    Illusion of Control More

  • Jan 28 2009

    Obama's Recession Fix

    The Right Track - Through the Recession and Preparing for the Turn More

  • Jan 23 2009

    Hope & Fears = Poor Decision-Making

    ECRI's Achuthan was on CNBC this morning to discuss the breakdown of traditional forecasting models and how that throws decision-making into disarray. More

  • Jan 23 2009

    Timing Matters: Business Cycle Waits for No One

    Details of the 'Make Work Pay' credit, a major element in the recovery proposal, may slow the process of getting money into workers' pockets. More

  • Jan 23 2009

    U.S. Economy to Stay in Recession

    A measure of U.S. future economic growth fell while its annualized growth rate ticked up in the latest week, but both remain deep in recession territory. More

  • Jan 22 2009

    Recession vs. Depression

    Recession vs. Depression More

  • Jan 20 2009

    Things Get Worse, Slower

    Barack Obama campaigned on a message of hope. It seems appropriate on this day, then, to note some glimmers amid the gloomy economic outlook. More

  • Jan 20 2009

    Hope and the Economy

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with Reuters about the role of hope in the making of a recovery. More

  • Jan 16 2009

    No sign yet of recession end

    A measure of future economic growth in the United States fell, signalling the way out of recession is not in sight. More

  • Jan 16 2009

    Vital Signs In A Sick Economy

    Here lies the economy: sick, ailing, bedridden. Every day there is more bad news. One sector is suffering; another is getting worse. The whole financial structure is like some kind of fading patient. More

  • Jan 14 2009

    Q & A on the recession

    ECRI managing director spoke with Jim Picerno of The Capital Spectator about the current U.S. recession and a recent uptick in the Weekly Leading Index. More

  • Jan 10 2009

    Review of jobs report

    Review of jobs report More

  • Jan 10 2009

    Good Shot or No Shot?

    ECRI managing director, Lakshman Achuthan, sat down with CNN Money’s Paul La Monica for a quick round of predictions relating to the ongoing recession. More

  • Jan 09 2009

    U.S. Inflation Pressures at 50-Year Low

    U.S. inflation pressures fell in December to a 50-year low, indicating policy-makers should focus on economic growth. More

  • Jan 09 2009

    WLI Growth Remains Deep in Negative Territory

    A measure of future economic growth in the United States and its annualized growth rate rose in the latest week but are still near all-time lows. More

  • Jan 09 2009

    Eurozone FIG falls to 3-1/2 Year Low

    Euro zone inflationary pressures fell in November to the lowest level in 3-1/2 years, a forward-looking indicator showed on Friday. More


ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
"eerily accurate"
- National Public Radio
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
- ECRI Professional Member
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
- The Economist

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Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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