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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Dec 31 2009

    Achuthan Explains Why Recessions More Frequent

    ECRI managing director, Lakshman Achuthan, spoke with Bloomberg TV about why the U.S. will see more frequent recessions ahead. More

  • Dec 31 2009

    2010 Cyclical Outlook

    ECRI’s Achuthan appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning to discuss the near-term and longer-term cyclical outlook. His comments come at the beginning and end of the segment. More

  • Dec 22 2009

    Recovery and Jobs Growth are Underway

    Lakshman Achuthan is the managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute and managing editor of ECRI’s forecasting publications. More

  • Dec 18 2009

    WLI Rises to 17-month High

    A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth continued to rise, reaching levels hit in the summer of 2008. More

  • Dec 11 2009

    Commodities Show Boom as Recession Recedes

    Raw-material prices are signaling the economy is in a "boom cycle" as the world exits the worst recession since World War II, said Lakshman Achuthan. More

  • Dec 11 2009

    Consumer is Recovering

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan comments on where the consumer is now, and where they're headed in coming quarters (following breakdown of survey data by Steve Liesman). More

  • Dec 11 2009

    WLI Growth Rises

    A weekly index of future U.S. economic growth ticked up to levels reached early last year in the latest week. More

  • Dec 08 2009

    Higher Productivity Means More Jobs Ahead

    The Workforce is Working Harder With Fewer Workers SUSIE GHARIB: As the White House tries to kick-start hiring, companies across the economy are getting by with fewer workers. But those employees a More

  • Dec 08 2009

    Business inventory increase a good sign

    "...Amy Scott: We're not talking any miracles here. Inventories grew by just two-tenths of a percent. But after 13 months of declines, economist Lakshman Achuthan says it's a good sign. Lakshman Ac More

  • Dec 07 2009

    Recession frequency to Rise

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with CNN Money about why ECRI is concerned about more frequent recession in the coming decade, even though the current recovery is stronger at this early stage than the More

  • Dec 07 2009

    Cyclical vs. Secular Outlook

    Lakshman Achuthan discusses how the cyclical outlook meshes with ECRI's longer-term concerns. Lakshman comments through minute three and again at the seven minute mark. More

  • Dec 04 2009

    Unemployment Is Down, But Business Cycles Are Key

    This morning's news of a drop in the unemployment rate to ten percent is a welcome development. It was presaged by earlier strength in reliable leading employment indicators, which suggest that this i More

  • Dec 04 2009

    WLI Level Edges Higher

    A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly in the latest week. More

  • Dec 04 2009

    U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

    A monthly gauge of U.S. inflation pressures continued to climb in November to a 14-month high. More

  • Dec 04 2009

    Eurozone inflation pressures at 10-month high

    Euro zone inflationary pressures rose to a 10-month high in October. More

  • Nov 27 2009

    Sharp recession, sharp recovery?

    One argument for a strong economic recovery rests on the historical observation that deep declines are followed by sharp rebounds. Yet, despite the Great Recession being the deepest downturn since More

  • Nov 25 2009

    WLI Level Rises in Latest Week

    A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, and while its yearly growth rate continued to fall from October's record highs to a 10-week low, a smooth recovery is still exp More

  • Nov 25 2009

    V-Shaped Recovery... Maybe

    In fact, the roar could blast your eardrums at least according to two obscure economic indicators. The short conclusion: growth rates in U.S. gross domestic product could surpass an annualized 7% More

  • Nov 20 2009

    WLI Dips But Recovery On Track

    A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a nine-week low along with its yearly growth rate, but the dip in the index that recently reached a record high does not signal a rocky recovery More

  • Nov 20 2009

    Recovery Will Continue

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talked with Squawk Box about the sustainability of the recovery and prospects for a downturn in manufacturing. More

Testimonial

For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI’s array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
- ECRI Professional Member
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock – deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
- ECRI Professional Member
(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
           

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