A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Apr 03 2009

    Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge Falls Again

    A key gauge of forward-looking euro zone inflation pressures fell further in February, suggesting inflation will drop further in coming months. More

  • Mar 27 2009

    WLI Growth at 21-Week High

    A weekly measure of U.S. future economic growth climbed along with its annualized growth rate, indicating signs of a smoother economic recovery. More

  • Mar 23 2009

    Washington and the Business Cycle

    SUSIE GHARIB: Optimism that the Treasury plan will finally stabilize the financial system pushed shares of major banks higher by 20 percent or more. But despite the rally, there are still questions on More

  • Mar 23 2009

    Bailouts and Business Cycle Timing

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with CNBC about the relationship between the business cycle and all the bailout efforts (comments start three minutes in). More

  • Mar 20 2009

    Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week while its annualized growth rate steadied, indicating that economic conditions are beginning to stabilize. More

  • Mar 12 2009

    WLI Stabilizing?

    There was a flicker of good news in February, when the Economic Cycle Research Institute's Weekly Leading Index rose for the first time in six weeks. More

  • Mar 06 2009

    U.S. Recession Has Not Yet Hit Bottom

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped to a fresh 14-year low in the latest week, indicating the recession has yet to hit a trough. More

  • Mar 06 2009

    Eurozone FIG Falls Further

    A key gauge of euro zone future inflation pressures extended its steep fall in January, hinting at even lower inflation in the coming months. More

  • Mar 06 2009

    US Inflation Pressures Lowest Since June 1958

    U.S. inflation pressures fell in February to a fresh 50-year low, indicating consumer prices may decline further. More

  • Mar 04 2009

    What GDP Means

    By now, most of us have heard the news that U.S. GDP is down 6.2 percent. But what does this number mean and, more importantly, what should we do about it? What indicators can we trust, and what's pur More

  • Mar 03 2009

    Will recession become something worse?

    Today’s economic indicators don’t project a depression. More

  • Feb 27 2009

    WLI at New 13-Year Low

    A measure of U.S. future economic growth fell to a 13-year low, indicating economic recovery is nowhere in sight. More

  • Feb 27 2009

    Obama Forecast and Budget

    ECRI's Achuthan talked with CNBC about President Obama's economic and budget projections. More

  • Feb 23 2009

    Deficit Strategy Depends on Business Cycle

    Some economists doubt President Obama will be able to meet his goal of cutting the nation's deficit in half by the end of his first term. More

  • Feb 21 2009

    Model Forecasts, and to Stimulate or Not

    ECRI's Achuthan was on CNN today discussing the CBO's forecast of unemployment declines after a year or two and how stimulus interacts with the business cycle. More

  • Feb 20 2009

    WLI Remains Near Cyclical Low

    A measure of U.S. future economic growth rose in the latest week along with its annualized growth rate, though the economy remains far from recovery. More

  • Feb 17 2009

    Stimulus: Now the hard part

    President Obama on Tuesday signed the $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act into law. More

  • Feb 16 2009

    Stimulus to Slow Recession

    On Monday ECRI's Banerji was on Bloomberg TV to discuss the ongoing recessions worldwide and likely impact of the U.S. stimulus package. More

  • Feb 13 2009

    Business Cycle Recovery Remains Elusive

    A measure of U.S. future economic growth slipped further along with its annualized growth rate in the latest week, indicating a hazy reading of economic recovery, a research group said on Friday. More

  • Feb 12 2009

    Signs of a Difficult Spring

    Indicators show the recession is still a ways off from the worst-case scenario. More


ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
- ECRI Professional Member
"eerily accurate"
- National Public Radio
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
- ECRI Professional Member
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
- The Economist

Our Track Record

ECRI Services

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

View the Timeline