A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Feb 27 2009

    WLI at New 13-Year Low

    A measure of U.S. future economic growth fell to a 13-year low, indicating economic recovery is nowhere in sight. More

  • Feb 27 2009

    Obama Forecast and Budget

    ECRI's Achuthan talked with CNBC about President Obama's economic and budget projections. More

  • Feb 23 2009

    Deficit Strategy Depends on Business Cycle

    Some economists doubt President Obama will be able to meet his goal of cutting the nation's deficit in half by the end of his first term. More

  • Feb 21 2009

    Model Forecasts, and to Stimulate or Not

    ECRI's Achuthan was on CNN today discussing the CBO's forecast of unemployment declines after a year or two and how stimulus interacts with the business cycle. More

  • Feb 20 2009

    WLI Remains Near Cyclical Low

    A measure of U.S. future economic growth rose in the latest week along with its annualized growth rate, though the economy remains far from recovery. More

  • Feb 17 2009

    Stimulus: Now the hard part

    President Obama on Tuesday signed the $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act into law. More

  • Feb 16 2009

    Stimulus to Slow Recession

    On Monday ECRI's Banerji was on Bloomberg TV to discuss the ongoing recessions worldwide and likely impact of the U.S. stimulus package. More

  • Feb 13 2009

    Business Cycle Recovery Remains Elusive

    A measure of U.S. future economic growth slipped further along with its annualized growth rate in the latest week, indicating a hazy reading of economic recovery, a research group said on Friday. More

  • Feb 12 2009

    Signs of a Difficult Spring

    Indicators show the recession is still a ways off from the worst-case scenario. More

  • Feb 08 2009

    Supply-Side Hit to T-Bonds

    Treasury yields are on the rise. Debit that! More

  • Feb 07 2009

    Jobs, Recession and Stimulus

    ECRI's Achuthan was on CNBC's Squawk Box Friday morning at 6:00 AM (ET) to discuss the jobs market and broader issues with the recession and efforts to stimulate the economy. More

  • Feb 06 2009

    Eurozone Inflation Pressures Nosedive

    Euro zone inflationary pressures crashed to a six-year low in December, a forward looking indicator showed on Friday, suggesting inflation would fall further in coming months. More

  • Feb 06 2009

    US Inflation Pressures Hit Fresh 50-Year Low

    U.S. inflation pressures fell in January to a 50-year low as consumer prices face downward pressure. More

  • Feb 06 2009

    U.S. Economy Will Not Recover Soon

    A measure of U.S. future economic growth and its annualized rate fell in the previous week, indicating the economy will not recover in the near future. More

  • Feb 02 2009

    No Objective Signs of Upturn

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with Forbes' Bob Lenzner about the economy and markets. More

  • Feb 02 2009

    Banks and the Bailout

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with Kerri Miller at Minnesota Public Radio about the bank bailouts, and broader efforts to support the financial sector and the economy. More

  • Jan 30 2009

    WLI Level Dips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped in the latest week while its annualized growth rate inched up but both still indicate the downward spiral of the economy has not stopped. More

  • Jan 29 2009

    Illusion of Control

    Illusion of Control More

  • Jan 28 2009

    Obama's Recession Fix

    The Right Track - Through the Recession and Preparing for the Turn More

  • Jan 23 2009

    Hope & Fears = Poor Decision-Making

    ECRI's Achuthan was on CNBC this morning to discuss the breakdown of traditional forecasting models and how that throws decision-making into disarray. More


I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction – even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that – lead where things were headed.
- Randall Forsyth, Barron's
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock – deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
- ECRI Professional Member
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
- The Economist
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine

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