A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Nov 20 2009

    WLI Dips But Recovery On Track

    A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a nine-week low along with its yearly growth rate, but the dip in the index that recently reached a record high does not signal a rocky recovery More

  • Nov 20 2009

    Recovery Will Continue

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talked with Squawk Box about the sustainability of the recovery and prospects for a downturn in manufacturing. More

  • Nov 13 2009

    WLI Growth Eases from Record High

    A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped to an 8-week low, sending its yearly growth rate further off record levels reached seven weeks ago, a research group said on Friday. The More

  • Nov 09 2009

    Disconnect between recovery and jobs

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with CNN this morning about why there's a disconnect between economic recovery and unemployment, and how this has happened many times before. More

  • Nov 06 2009

    Unemployment no bar to recovery

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with the Newshour about rising unemployment and recovery. More

  • Nov 06 2009

    WLI Level at Four Week High

    A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a four-week high in the latest week while its yearly growth rate edged lower, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research In More

  • Nov 06 2009

    US FIG Remains in Cyclical Upturn

    A monthly gauge of U.S. inflation pressures rose to a one-year high in October, pulled up by higher commodity prices, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U. More

  • Nov 06 2009

    Euro Zone Deflation Fears Fading

    Euro zone inflationary pressures eased in September, but remain close to a seven-month high, suggesting inflation will pick up in coming months, a forward looking indicator showed on Friday. Th More

  • Nov 01 2009

    Interview With WSJ Report

    This weekend the Wall Street Journal Report features Economic Cycle Research Institute dir. Lakshman Achuthan, ex-Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson and eBay CEO John Donahoe (C-SPAN, SUN, 10am/6pm) More

  • Oct 31 2009

    No double-dip

    US third quarter advanced gross domestic product (GDP) number has surprised most economists coming in at 3.5%, implying there has been a 3.5% GDP growth for the US economy in third quarter. More

  • Oct 30 2009

    WLI Growth Rate Edges Down

    A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week while its yearly growth rate edged lower. More

  • Oct 29 2009

    Growth is more than stimulus

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with CBS about the GDP report and how it relates to government spending. More

  • Oct 26 2009

    "Textbook" Recovery

    ECRI managing director, Lakshman Achuthan, spoke with Bloomberg TV about how the recovery in ECRI's leading indexes is progressing in a textbook fashion. More

  • Oct 23 2009

    US Recovery to Gain Strength Through New Year

    The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 127.9 in the week to October 16 from 128.1 in the the previous week. More

  • Oct 22 2009

    Interview on recovery

    ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Nightline about the recovery, jobs, and the emotional mix as the economy changes direction. More

  • Oct 18 2009

    Jobs and credit during early stage of recoveries

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with NPR's Guy Raz about what seems to be conflicting data, discussing how jobs and credit measures are acting in a relatively standard way. More

  • Oct 17 2009

    Stocks and the Economy

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with WNYC's The Takeaway about the run up in the stock market, and why it'd different than the stock market, also touching on the jobs market. More

  • Oct 17 2009

    Radio Interview on Outlook

    ECRI's Achuthan had an extended discussion with Luciana Xavier, da Agência Estado, about the U.S. outlook for growth and inflation, also touching on Brazil's economy and the global industrial cycle. More

  • Oct 16 2009

    US Recovery Poised to Trounce Any Obstacles

    A weekly index of future U.S.economic growth edged down in the latest week, but its yearly growth rate rose to a new record high. More

  • Oct 14 2009

    A Reply to Paul Krugman

    In an October 13 blog post Professor Krugman questioned ECRI's real-time More

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