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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Apr 06 2012

    Eurozone FIG Rises

    Despite its latest uptick, the EZFIG is still in a clear cyclical downtrend. Euro zone inflation is likely to remain in a cyclical downtrend in the coming months. More

  • Mar 30 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week. More

  • Mar 23 2012

    WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week. More

  • Mar 22 2012

    The Yo-Yo Years

    Presentation slides and notes from Frankfurt conference about the risk of contagion, explaining why both developed and developing economies are now in the "Yo-Yo Years." More

  • Mar 16 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week. More

  • Mar 15 2012

    Why Our Recession Call Stands

    Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor give us no choice. More

  • Mar 09 2012

    WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week. More

  • Mar 09 2012

    Flat FIG

    U.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in February. More

  • Mar 09 2012

    Euro Inflation Pressures Ease

    Falling further from its early 2011 high, the EZFIG declined to a 21-month low in its latest reading. More

  • Mar 07 2012

    New Growth Rate Cycle Dates

    We have recently determined growth rate cycle peak dates for France, Italy and Switzerland. More

  • Mar 02 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up to its highest level in six months last week. More

  • Feb 29 2012

    Q4 GDP Revision & Recession

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with CNNi following today's revision to 2011 Q4 GDP. More

  • Feb 24 2012

    U.S. Growth Slowing, Not Reviving

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Surveillance to point out that U.S. economic growth has actually slowed in recent months, contrary to the consensus view. More

  • Feb 24 2012

    WLI Drops

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped last week. More

  • Feb 24 2012

    U.S. Growth at 21-Month Low

    The hard data which officially define recession show that U.S. economic growth has been slowing, not reviving. More

  • Feb 24 2012

    Velocity of Money Dropping

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses our recession call, including the Weekly Leading Index and velocity of money. More

  • Feb 17 2012

    WLI Falls

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week. More

  • Feb 10 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged higher in the latest week. More

  • Feb 03 2012

    WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly in the latest week. More

  • Feb 03 2012

    U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

    U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 101.2. More

Testimonial

Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
- The New York Times
"eerily accurate"
- National Public Radio
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI’s array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
- ECRI Professional Member
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
- ECRI Professional Member
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
           

Our Track Record

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Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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