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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Mar 29 2010

    Presentation slides: Jobs recovery real but more frequent recessions ahead

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan shares his presentation notes and slides from early March 2010. More

  • Mar 26 2010

    Business Cycle Overview

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Yahoo's Tech Ticker about ECRI's outlook for 2010, including details behind the drop in the overall unemployment rate. More

  • Mar 26 2010

    WLI Level at Nine-Week High

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to its highest level in nine weeks, More

  • Mar 26 2010

    Outlook on Debt

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talked with Fox Business this morning about the outlook for the economy in light of higher interest rates. More

  • Mar 19 2010

    Double dip fears 'remain unfounded'

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to its highest level in seven weeks, More

  • Mar 19 2010

    Fed and Growth Outlook

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talked with CNBC this morning about ECRI's Future Inflation Gauge, among other things. More

  • Mar 18 2010

    Timing Monetary Policy

    ECRI's Achuthan discussed Fed policy with the BBC. (see Lakshman "shrink at the 1:40 minute mark) More

  • Mar 12 2010

    Weekly Leading Index Rises

    A gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly in the latest week while its yearly growth index continued to fall to a 31-week low, More

  • Mar 12 2010

    Weekly Leading Indicators Weak

    Want some more bad news to throw on top of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index’s dreary results? More

  • Mar 09 2010

    More Frequent Recessions Ahead

    ECRI's Banerji spoke with the Wall Street Journal about more frequent recessions ahead. More

  • Mar 08 2010

    Radio Guest Hosting

    On Monday from 8 - 10am (ET) ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will guest host on Bloomberg radio. The discussion will examine how this recovery is stronger than the last two, while at the same time 40% of the More

  • Mar 08 2010

    Unemployment in U.S. Peaked in October

    History indicates U.S. joblessness in coming months won’t exceed the quarter-century high reached in October, More

  • Mar 07 2010

    Jobs: Short-term hope, long-term despair

    Friday's jobs report showed some glimmers of a recovery but if you're among the 8.8 million Americans still unemployed after nearly four months, More

  • Mar 06 2010

    Your $$$$$ Part 2

    ECRI's Achuthan continues in a discussion how the jobs rate has peaked, even though 40% of unemployed not regaining lost jobs. More

  • Mar 06 2010

    Your $$$$$ Interview

    ECRI's Achuthan joins CNN's Your $$$$$ this weekend at 1pm on Saturday and 3pm Sunday (ET) to discuss why there is a sharper jobs recovery than in the past two recoveries, yet we still have 40% of the More

  • Mar 06 2010

    Your $$$$$ Part 1

    ECRI's Achuthan discusses how the jobs rate has peaked, even though 40% of unemployed not regaining lost jobs. More

  • Mar 05 2010

    Jobs Report Reaction

    ECRI's Achuthan joined CNN minutes after the jobs number were released this morning to discuss how they relate to the business cycle. More

  • Mar 05 2010

    Jobs and Recovery

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses the bigger picture on jobs and the recovery. More

  • Mar 05 2010

    Squawk Box on Jobs

    ECRI's Achuthan breaks down unemployment trends. More

  • Mar 05 2010

    Unemployment Rate Steady At 9.7%

    Snowicane? Schmoicane! The BLS report is out and despite whispers of horrible numbers due to February storms along the East coast (over 1 million workers didn’t work in February due to bad weather; More

Testimonial

Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.
- The New York Times
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
- The Economist
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
           

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