A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • May 11 2012

    WLI Growth Ticks Down

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week. More

  • May 09 2012

    Free Market Economies Have Business Cycles

    Many think recessions are some sort of “failure,” and, if policy makers just did the “right thing,” they could stave off recession indefinitely, meaning they could repeal the business cycle. More

  • May 09 2012

    Revoking Recession: 48th Time's the Charm?

    Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? More

  • May 09 2012

    Recession Update

    For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the start of each of the last ten recessions. More

  • May 09 2012

    Is there really no recession?

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with Henry Blodget about ECRI's recession call. More

  • May 09 2012

    Business Cycle Can't Be Repealed

    Achuthan and Costello discuss how recessions are part and parcel of free-market economies. More

  • May 09 2012

    Update to Feb Interview

    Achuthan discusses ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about half a year after a recession begins before a negative real-time GDP print is released. More

  • May 04 2012

    WLI Growth Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth ticked up, but its growth rate fell to zero. More

  • May 04 2012

    U.S. FIG Ticks Down

    U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in April. More

  • Apr 27 2012

    WLI Growth Slips Again

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly last week. More

  • Apr 20 2012

    WLI Drops

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week. More

  • Apr 20 2012

    ECRI Insight: The Yo-Yo Years

    The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. More

  • Apr 13 2012

    WLI Falls

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth eased last week. More

  • Apr 06 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week. More

  • Apr 06 2012

    Inflation Gauge Dips

    U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in March. More

  • Apr 06 2012

    Some Dreary Forecasts From Recovery Skeptics

    When a lackluster jobs report came in on Friday morning, some economists, investors and forecasters were hardly surprised. More

  • Apr 06 2012

    Eurozone FIG Rises

    Despite its latest uptick, the EZFIG is still in a clear cyclical downtrend. Euro zone inflation is likely to remain in a cyclical downtrend in the coming months. More

  • Mar 30 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week. More

  • Mar 23 2012

    WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week. More

  • Mar 22 2012

    The Yo-Yo Years

    Presentation slides and notes from Frankfurt conference about the risk of contagion, explaining why both developed and developing economies are now in the "Yo-Yo Years." More

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Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
- ECRI Professional Member
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock – deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
- ECRI Professional Member
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
- Fortune Magazine
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer

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