A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Nov 05 2010

    The Fed and the FIG

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with CNBC's Squawk Box about the Future Inflation Gauge in the context of QE2. More

  • Nov 05 2010

    WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a 4-week high in the latest week, More

  • Nov 05 2010

    U.S. FIG Slips

    U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 97.4 from a downwardly revised 97.5 in September, More

  • Nov 05 2010

    Eurozone FIG Eases

    Inflationary pressures in the euro zone eased in September, according to a forward looking indicator from the Economic Cycle Research Institute. More

  • Nov 01 2010

    No recession, but more slowing ahead

    ECRI's Achuthan discussing ECRI's "no recession" call, with comments about more slowing ahead, and how the business cycle relates to elections. More

  • Oct 31 2010

    The business cycle and elections

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with CNN about where we are in the business cycle and how that may relate to what voters are feeling. More

  • Oct 29 2010
  • Oct 29 2010

    No double-dip recession, but jobs growth to slow

    Lakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI no new recession verdict with CNN, and why that doesn't mean jobs growth will improve anytime soon. More

  • Oct 28 2010

    No double-dip recession

    The good news is that the much-feared double-dip recession is not going to happen. More

  • Oct 28 2010

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a 3-week high in the latest week, More

  • Oct 22 2010

    WLI Eases

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a six-week low in the latest week, More

  • Oct 15 2010

    WLI Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a 3-week low in the latest week, More

  • Oct 11 2010

    Stimulus Jobs and Recession Call

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discussing what impact stimulus can have on the jobs market, and when ECRI can make a call on recession vs. soft-landing. More

  • Oct 10 2010

    Depression Facts, and Jobs Report Review

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined CNN this weekend to discuss the weak recovery, and the jobs market landscape. More

  • Oct 08 2010

    Understanding the Job Data

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with the Newshour's Ray Suarez about the latest jobs figures. More

  • Oct 08 2010

    Double-dip or soft landing

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with CNN's Poppy Harlow about the jobs data and business cycle outlook More

  • Oct 08 2010

    Jobs Preview, Fed Policy and Recession vs. Soft-landing

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with CNBC this morning about the jobs report and Fed policy. Lakshman went on to say that ECRI is in the midst of a formal analysis on the very question of recession vs. More

  • Oct 08 2010

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a 19-week high in the latest week while the annualized growth rate rose to an 16-week high, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Rese More

  • Oct 08 2010

    U.S. FIG Edges Up

    A monthly measure of U.S. inflation pressures rose in September. More

  • Oct 08 2010

    Jobs Day Interviews

    On Friday morning, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will appear on the following shows to discuss the cyclical outlook, including the monthly jobs report. More


(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer

Our Track Record

ECRI Services

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

View the Timeline