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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • May 06 2011

    U.S. FIG Drops

    U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slid to 102.8 from a revised 104.7 in March. More

  • May 06 2011

    EZ FIG at 30-month high

    Inflationary pressures in the euro zone reached a 30-month high in March. More

  • May 06 2011

    WLI Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week to its weakest level in three months. More

  • Apr 25 2011

    Near-term good, but don't extrapolate!

    Lakshman talks with Gerri Willis about near-term and longer term cyclical risks for the U.S. economy. More

  • Apr 21 2011

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose last week to its highest level in nearly a year. More

  • Apr 15 2011

    The latest inflation data

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Fox Business News about the latest CPI data update, with a focus on the core rate of inflation. More

  • Apr 15 2011

    WLI Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week. More

  • Apr 01 2011

    The Fed's problem is knowing when to move

    Early Friday morning Lakshman Achuthan discusses the jobs report, and how the Fed is hampered by the Output Gap, Core Inflation and even inflation expectations. More

  • Apr 01 2011

    How low can unemployment go?

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses the decline in unemployment. More

  • Apr 01 2011

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly in the latest week. More

  • Apr 01 2011

    Euro price pressures at 29-mth high

    Inflationary pressures in the euro zone reached a 29-month high in February. More

  • Apr 01 2011

    U.S. FIG Rises

    The ECRI US future inflation gauge continues its rise in March, a trend sure to get noticed by Federal Reserve officials concerned about growing inflation expectations. More

  • Mar 31 2011

    Mr. Greenspan’s Blind Spot

    In early March, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was asked to comment about ECRI's long-held criticism that the Fed is chronically behind the curve on monetary policy. More

  • Mar 25 2011

    WLI Dips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped last week. More

  • Mar 18 2011

    WLI Falls

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week. More

  • Mar 11 2011

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to the highest level in 10 months in the latest week. More

  • Mar 10 2011

    Announcing Russian Business Cycle Dates

    ECRI has determined the business cycle dates for the Russian economy. More

  • Mar 06 2011

    Big Picture Outlook

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan speaks with Anthony Mason about where we are the business cycle. More

  • Mar 04 2011

    Squawk Box Interview

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses the recovery and Fed inflation forecasting. More

  • Mar 04 2011

    Euro FIG at 28-month high

    Euro zone inflationary pressures hit a 28-month high in January. More

Testimonial

This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.
- The New York Times
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
           

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