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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Nov 04 2011

    U.S. FIG Drops

    U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dipped to 99.2 from a revised 99.7 in September, originally reported as 99.9, according to data released Friday. More

  • Oct 28 2011

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up in the latest week. More

  • Oct 26 2011

    Squaring Higher Stocks with Recession

    Flashback to an April 2008 interview discussing how ECRI's recession call remained intact despite a rise in stock prices and other data. More

  • Oct 24 2011

    Squaring Higher Stocks with Recession

    Flashback to an April 2008 interview discussing how ECRI's recession call remained intact despite a rise in stock prices and other data. More

  • Oct 21 2011

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week. More

  • Oct 14 2011

    WLI Falls

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest level in more than a year, a research group said on Friday. More

  • Oct 12 2011

    In-depth Interview

    At 9:00 PM (ET) ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Matt Miller on Bloomberg TV's Rewind to discuss how ECRI doesn't use models for forecasting, and why we are in an era of more frequent recessions. More

  • Oct 11 2011

    Recession Nips at Heels of Economy

    "...'We've had a new slowdown that began roughly in the second quarter of 2011,' says Lakshman Achuthan, who heads the Economic Cycle Research Institute. ' More

  • Oct 09 2011

    An Ugly Forecast That’s Been Right Before

    LET’S face it: economic forecasting is an act of sheer hubris. Which, of course, only incites people to do it. More

  • Oct 08 2011

    Recession & Jobs

    Lakshman Achuthan joined CNN's Your $$$$$ on Saturday to discuss ECRI's recession call and what it means for the job market in coming months. Re-airing Sunday at 3 PM (ET). More

  • Oct 07 2011

    WLI Falls

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth weakened in the latest week. More

  • Oct 07 2011

    US Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Up

    U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 99.9 from a revised 99.2 in August. More

  • Oct 07 2011

    Global Slowdown

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with Al Jazeera. More

  • Oct 07 2011

    Interview on Jobs

    At 7 AM (ET) ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with WNYC's John Hockenberry about the outlook for jobs in coming months. More

  • Oct 05 2011

    Recession: Mild or Severe?

    Lakshman Achuthan discusses how mild or severe the recession may become. More

  • Oct 05 2011

    Recession Weakness Beyond Sentiment

    Lakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI outlook with Reuters. More

  • Oct 05 2011

    Recession & Yield Spread

    Lakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI's recession call with BNN. More

  • Oct 05 2011

    Made in the U.S.A.

    "Sell in May and go away" is the hoary cliché that proved prescient this year for stock traders. More

  • Oct 05 2011

    Explaining the Recession Call

    The U.S. recovery wasn’t much to begin with, and now it’s dead. More

  • Oct 04 2011

    Double-Dip or New Recession?

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Anthony Mason about ECRI's new U.S. recession call. More

Testimonial

No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
- Fortune Magazine
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI’s insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI’s indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Professional Member
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
- Sydney Morning Herald
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction – even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that – lead where things were headed.
- Randall Forsyth, Barron's
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
           

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