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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Jun 04 2010

    Jobs Data Analysis

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with Bloomberg TV. More

  • Jun 03 2010

    Cyclical View of Jobs

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with NBR about cyclical and non-cyclical job market trends. More

  • Jun 01 2010

    Commodities’ Biggest Drop Since Lehman

    The biggest slump in commodities since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed is undermining Wall Street forecasts More

  • Jun 01 2010

    NYT Roubini Article, IMF Transcript

    The August 16 issue of the New York Times magazine included an article about Nouriel Roubini written by Stephen Mihm, More

  • May 28 2010

    WLI Growth Tumbles

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a 39-week low in the latest week, More

  • May 22 2010

    U.S. Growth Throttling Back

    Last spring ECRI declared the recession would end by summer. More

  • May 21 2010

    WLI Growth at 43-Week Low

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a 35-week low in the latest week, More

  • May 14 2010

    WLI Growth at 40-Week Low

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a four-week low in the latest week while its annualized growth rate hit a 40-week low, More

  • May 11 2010

    Why ECRI is different

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses how ECRI's approach relates to the broader economic forecasting field in this extended More

  • May 10 2010

    A Stitch in Time

    Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Stuart Varney this morning about how bad policy timing is largely to blame for the big-ticket bank bailout announced in Europe over the weekend, More

  • May 07 2010

    Shocks to the Cycle

    Lakshman Achuthan discussing how ECRI’s array of leading indicators monitor the economy’s evolving vulnerability to shocks. More

  • May 07 2010

    Little Risk of Renewed Recession This Year

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a more than two-year high in the latest week, More

  • May 07 2010

    Inflation Not a Near-Term Danger

    A monthly measure of U.S. inflation pressures eased slightly in April after hitting an 18-month high in March, More

  • May 07 2010

    Jobs Report Interviews

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will give two live interviews on Friday regarding the jobs report: 6:05 AM (ET) CNBC TV 8:40 AM (ET) WNYC Radio Over the weekend Lakshman will be a guest on CNN's "Yo More

  • May 07 2010

    Europe Price Pressures Up

    Inflationary pressures in the euro zone touched a 16-month high in March marking a clear cyclical upturn in prices, More

  • Apr 30 2010

    GDP Report Shows Broader Recovery

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with CBS Evening News about how the consumer is playing a bigger role in the recovery which is stronger than the recoveries from the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions. More

  • Apr 30 2010

    WLI growth at 38-week low

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week but its annualized growth rate fell, More

  • Apr 30 2010

    Slowdown ahead, but not recession

    What a difference a year makes! Exactly a year ago, economists were blindsided by first quarter GDP growth data staying near half-century lows, More

  • Apr 28 2010

    Cyclical Outlook Podcast

    ECRI's Anirvan Banerji discusses ECRI's outlook in this extended Podcast Interview More

  • Apr 23 2010

    US Econ Growth Gauge Shows Recovery on Track

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a nearly two-year high in the latest week, More

Testimonial

"eerily accurate"
- National Public Radio
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI’s insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI’s indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Professional Member
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
- ECRI Professional Member
           

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