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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Oct 08 2010

    Double-dip or soft landing

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with CNN's Poppy Harlow about the jobs data and business cycle outlook More

  • Oct 08 2010

    Jobs Preview, Fed Policy and Recession vs. Soft-landing

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with CNBC this morning about the jobs report and Fed policy. Lakshman went on to say that ECRI is in the midst of a formal analysis on the very question of recession vs. More

  • Oct 08 2010

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a 19-week high in the latest week while the annualized growth rate rose to an 16-week high, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Rese More

  • Oct 08 2010

    U.S. FIG Edges Up

    A monthly measure of U.S. inflation pressures rose in September. More

  • Oct 08 2010

    Jobs Day Interviews

    On Friday morning, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will appear on the following shows to discuss the cyclical outlook, including the monthly jobs report. More

  • Oct 05 2010

    Lessons for China from Japan and America

    China is showing that it has learnt a lesson from the ruinous choices made by the world's other two biggest economies. More

  • Oct 04 2010

    Growth Rate Cycle Chronologies Updated

    ECRI has updated the growth rate cycle dates for India and New Zealand. More

  • Oct 01 2010

    Weekly Leading Index Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a 2-week high in the latest week, More

  • Sep 24 2010

    WLI Level Falls

    A measure of future U.S.economic growth fell to a 2-week low in the latest week, More

  • Sep 24 2010

    Recession End Dates for Major Int'l Economies

    ECRI has determined the recession end dates for most of the G-7 and other major economies, More

  • Sep 21 2010

    Why so long to declare recession over?

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Bloomberg Asia about the fact the the recovery is real, even though most still believe we're in recession. More

  • Sep 21 2010

    Recession Over?

    In the first segment of CBS Evening News ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses why it still feels like we're in recession. More

  • Sep 20 2010

    Recovery for 15 Months

    ECRI's Anirvan Banerji spoke with BBC News this evening about the U.S. recession ending in the summer of 2009, and where we likely are in the business cycle today. More

  • Sep 20 2010

    Why Recession End Matters

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with WNYC radio about the end of recession and where we go from here. More

  • Sep 20 2010

    Where do we go from here?

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan on a second segment with CNN this afternoon discussing the 15 months of recovery, and where we go from here. More

  • Sep 20 2010

    Recession Ended June '09

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined CNN today to discussing the recession end date being 15 months ago, in June of 2009, and why that doesn't seem to fit with how people feel about the economy. More

  • Sep 20 2010

    Recession End Date Discussions

    Today ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will appear on the following shows to discuss the recession end date and cyclical outlook. More

  • Sep 20 2010

    "Recession Over" Summer '09 Flashback

    With today's NBER announcement that the recession ended in June 2009 we thought it was important to recall that in the summer of 2009 ECRI was a key reason behind a Newsweek story on why the recession More

  • Sep 17 2010

    WLI Growth at 14-Week High

    A measure of future U.S.economic growth rose to a 14-week high in the latest week. More

  • Sep 10 2010

    Weekly Leading Index Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a four-week high in the latest week. More

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(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
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Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.
- The New York Times
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
- The Economist
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI’s array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
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In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
           

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