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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Nov 24 2010

    Retail Sales and Jobs

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined MPR for a discussion about the recovery, and how it relates to consumer psychology and the job market. More

  • Nov 24 2010

    WLI Rises Again

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a 27-week high in the latest week, More

  • Nov 19 2010

    WLI Rises Again

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a 25-week high in the latest week, More

  • Nov 17 2010

    Global Industrial Growth Revival Ahead

    "...the Journal of Commerce-Economic Cycle Research Institute industrial-prices index hit its 2010 high last Friday, just a hair under its record high from 2008. More

  • Nov 12 2010

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a 24-week high in the latest week, More

  • Nov 07 2010

    Private Sector Hiring Persists

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with CNN about how ECRI's "no double-dip" call relates to continued private sector hiring. More

  • Nov 07 2010

    Can Fed Draw Virtuous Circle?

    TWO momentous events occurred last week, and what was most startling for the financial markets was that they were so utterly predictable. As if on cue, the markets rose. First, in the midterm elect More

  • Nov 05 2010

    The Fed and the FIG

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with CNBC's Squawk Box about the Future Inflation Gauge in the context of QE2. More

  • Nov 05 2010

    WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a 4-week high in the latest week, More

  • Nov 05 2010

    U.S. FIG Slips

    U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 97.4 from a downwardly revised 97.5 in September, More

  • Nov 05 2010

    Eurozone FIG Eases

    Inflationary pressures in the euro zone eased in September, according to a forward looking indicator from the Economic Cycle Research Institute. More

  • Nov 01 2010

    No recession, but more slowing ahead

    ECRI's Achuthan discussing ECRI's "no recession" call, with comments about more slowing ahead, and how the business cycle relates to elections. More

  • Oct 31 2010

    The business cycle and elections

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with CNN about where we are in the business cycle and how that may relate to what voters are feeling. More

  • Oct 29 2010
  • Oct 29 2010

    No double-dip recession, but jobs growth to slow

    Lakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI no new recession verdict with CNN, and why that doesn't mean jobs growth will improve anytime soon. More

  • Oct 28 2010

    No double-dip recession

    The good news is that the much-feared double-dip recession is not going to happen. More

  • Oct 28 2010

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a 3-week high in the latest week, More

  • Oct 22 2010

    WLI Eases

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a six-week low in the latest week, More

  • Oct 15 2010

    WLI Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a 3-week low in the latest week, More

  • Oct 11 2010

    Stimulus Jobs and Recession Call

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discussing what impact stimulus can have on the jobs market, and when ECRI can make a call on recession vs. soft-landing. More

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Testimonial

ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
- The Economist
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI’s insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI’s indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Professional Member
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock – deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
- ECRI Professional Member
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
- Fortune Magazine
           

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