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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Sep 02 2011

    Eurozone FIG Edges Up

    Inflationary pressures in the euro zone edged up in July from June's seven-month low. More

  • Sep 02 2011

    WLI Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week. More

  • Sep 02 2011

    Recession Risk Rising

    "As if Friday's report that showed job creation at a dead stall wasn't bad enough, economists say the worst could be yet to come. More

  • Sep 02 2011

    U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Down

    U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge rose to 99.5 from 98.5 in July. More

  • Aug 31 2011

    Trend of Slowing Jobs Growth

    Segment including ECRI runs from the 9:00 to 11:40 minute mark. More

  • Aug 31 2011

    Job Market to Remain Weak

    Near the end of the interview Lakshman misquoted the number of robots currently used by Foxconn, China’s largest private employer (10,000, not 10 million!). More

  • Aug 31 2011

    Jobs Outlook Tough for Policy

    President Obama will need a home run when he rolls out his new, long-awaited jobs plan next week. More

  • Aug 29 2011

    No Near-Term Jobs Fix

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses job market challenges in the context of the current slowdown occurring within an era of more frequent recessions. More

  • Aug 29 2011

    Jury Still Out on Recession Call

    There is more weakness ahead, but the jury is still out as to whether the cyclical (not transitory) slowdown will turn into a new recession. More

  • Aug 26 2011

    WLI Falls

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week. More

  • Aug 24 2011

    Rumble From Richmond

    There was a rumble from Richmond, which extended north to New York. More

  • Aug 19 2011

    WLI Drops

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth sank to a 41-week low in the latest week. More

  • Aug 12 2011

    WLI Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week. More

  • Aug 05 2011

    EZ FIG at 7-month low

    Inflationary pressures in the euro zone fell to a seven-month low in June. More

  • Aug 05 2011

    WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth increased in the week ended July 29. More

  • Aug 01 2011

    Business Cycle Getting Stuck

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses how the problems withe the job market predated the Great Recession, and how the jobs market reveals both the brief revival and the current cyclical slowdown. More

  • Aug 01 2011

    New Brazilian Long Leading Index

    Brazil, the largest economy in South America, is the twentieth country to be incorporated into ECRI's global cyclical monitoring framework. More

  • Jul 29 2011

    Are we at a tipping point?

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with The Wall Street Journal about how our slowdown call from earlier this year is impacted by recent events. Budget projections are also discussed. More

  • Jul 29 2011

    Slowdown Undeniable

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Reuters about the undeniable slowdown and associated risks. More

  • Jul 29 2011

    Budget Projections Ignore Recessions

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Reuters about how unrealistic it is that the debt and budget debate in Washington doesn't include recession scenarios. More

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Testimonial

(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
- ECRI Professional Member
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock – deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
- ECRI Professional Member
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
- Fortune Magazine
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
           

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