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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • May 09 2012

    Recession Update

    For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the start of each of the last ten recessions. More

  • May 09 2012

    Is there really no recession?

    ECRI's Achuthan talks with Henry Blodget about ECRI's recession call. More

  • May 09 2012

    Business Cycle Can't Be Repealed

    Achuthan and Costello discuss how recessions are part and parcel of free-market economies. More

  • May 09 2012

    Update to Feb Interview

    Achuthan discusses ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about half a year after a recession begins before a negative real-time GDP print is released. More

  • May 04 2012

    WLI Growth Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth ticked up, but its growth rate fell to zero. More

  • May 04 2012

    U.S. FIG Ticks Down

    U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in April. More

  • Apr 27 2012

    WLI Growth Slips Again

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly last week. More

  • Apr 20 2012

    WLI Drops

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week. More

  • Apr 20 2012

    ECRI Insight: The Yo-Yo Years

    The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. More

  • Apr 13 2012

    WLI Falls

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth eased last week. More

  • Apr 06 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week. More

  • Apr 06 2012

    Inflation Gauge Dips

    U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in March. More

  • Apr 06 2012

    Some Dreary Forecasts From Recovery Skeptics

    When a lackluster jobs report came in on Friday morning, some economists, investors and forecasters were hardly surprised. More

  • Apr 06 2012

    Eurozone FIG Rises

    Despite its latest uptick, the EZFIG is still in a clear cyclical downtrend. Euro zone inflation is likely to remain in a cyclical downtrend in the coming months. More

  • Mar 30 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week. More

  • Mar 23 2012

    WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week. More

  • Mar 22 2012

    The Yo-Yo Years

    Presentation slides and notes from Frankfurt conference about the risk of contagion, explaining why both developed and developing economies are now in the "Yo-Yo Years." More

  • Mar 16 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week. More

  • Mar 15 2012

    Why Our Recession Call Stands

    Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor give us no choice. More

  • Mar 09 2012

    WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week. More

Testimonial

(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
"eerily accurate"
- National Public Radio
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock – deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
- ECRI Professional Member
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
           

Our Track Record

ECRI Services

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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