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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Apr 13 2013

    Why Recovery Plan Has Faltered

    “We are not seeing signs of an imminent growth upturn that so many claim to see,” [ECRI] concludes." More

  • Apr 12 2013

    ECRI WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week. More

  • Apr 07 2013

    Interview on Jobs & Recession

    How the latest jobs data squares with ECRI's recession call. More

  • Apr 05 2013

    ECRI WLI Falls

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week. More

  • Apr 05 2013

    Employment Growth Hits New Low

    Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to a 19-month low, and household job growth has dropped to an 18-month low. More

  • Apr 05 2013

    U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Falls

    U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in March. More

  • Apr 05 2013

    Eurozone FIG Rises

    The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge ( EFZIG), published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, nudged up to 92.3 from January's 91.9. More

  • Mar 28 2013

    Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth held steady last week. More

  • Mar 22 2013

    Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth was unchanged last week. More

  • Mar 18 2013

    Stock Prices and Recessions

    When people say that we cannot be in recession now because stock prices are rising, it is important to know that we have seen this movie before. More

  • Mar 15 2013

    ECRI WLI Growth Ticks Down

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged higher last week, though the annualized growth rate faltered. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    Job Growth is Slowing

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses how, even with the stronger-than-expected jobs report, year-over-year payroll jobs growth has fallen to an 18-month low. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    Interview Summary

    In a few interviews this week we discussed ECRI’s recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. Each interview clip covers different aspects of that presentation as described below. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    Seasonal Factors at Play in Jobs Report

    Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    U.S. Price Pressures Pull Back

    Despite a recent rise in energy prices, inflationary pressures in the U.S. remain contained. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    ECRI WLI Growth Eases

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    Eurozone inflation pressures drop to 35-month low

    Eurozone inflation is likely to fall further as price pressures eased close to a three-year low in January, according to the Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    Recession in the Yo-Yo Years

    Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. See images and notes on the state of the business cycle. More

  • Mar 07 2013

    Recession Recognition

    ECRI's Achuthan joins The Daily Ticker to discuss recession recognition light of his recent presentation: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More

  • Mar 07 2013

    Recession Update: Part 2 of 2

    ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss his recent presentation: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More

Testimonial

ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
- The Economist
"penetrating analysis"
- The New York Times
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI’s array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
- ECRI Professional Member
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction – even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that – lead where things were headed.
- Randall Forsyth, Barron's
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
           

Our Track Record

ECRI Services

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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