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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Mar 14 2014

    Price Signals of Global Slack

    World trade price growth has seen almost continuous deflation since early 2012, and its renewed weakness suggests even more slack in the global economy. More

  • Mar 07 2014

    Growth Rate Cycle Dates for China

    Today ECRI is announcing new Chinese growth rate cycle dates, a trough in Dec. 2010, and a peak in Feb. 2012. More

  • Mar 07 2014

    ECRI WLI Up

    According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 1.9% in the week ended Feb. 28, up slightly from 1.7% in the previous week. More

  • Mar 07 2014

    U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

    "Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG remains below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release, "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still in check." More

  • Mar 07 2014

    Euro zone inflationary pressures still subdued

    Euro zone inflation pressures, while having edged up, remain subdued. More

  • Feb 28 2014

    ECRI WLI Ticking Down

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to weaken. More

  • Feb 21 2014

    ECRI WLI Growth Slips

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to weaken. More

  • Feb 14 2014

    ECRI WLI Drops

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity took a steep step down last week. More

  • Feb 12 2014

    New Growth Rate Cycle Dates for Germany, France, Italy & Spain

    Today ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle trough dates for Germany, France, Italy and Spain. More

  • Feb 08 2014

    Failure to Launch

    As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More

  • Feb 07 2014

    ECRI WLI Slips

    The index itself fell to 133.2 from 133.7. More

  • Feb 07 2014

    US Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Up

    "The USFIG stands well below its earlier highs, and is still close to October's 22-month low," ECRI said in a release, "Thus, underlying inflation pressures remain restrained." More

  • Feb 07 2014

    Inflationary pressures easing in euro zone

    Inflationary pressures in the euro zone remain in a downtrend, likely adding to fears about deflation in the 18-nation bloc. More

  • Jan 31 2014

    Weekly Leading Index Steady

    The WLI held steady at 133.8. More

  • Jan 24 2014

    ECRI WLI Ticks Down

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity is picking up strength. More

  • Jan 22 2014

    Secular Stagnation

    GDP growth (yoy) has been less than 2% for four straight quarters, something we’ve never seen except during or right after a recession. More

  • Jan 17 2014

    ECRI WLI Ticks Up

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity showed a burst of momentum last week. More

  • Jan 15 2014

    Cyclical & Secular Outlook

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined BNN to discuss the cyclical outlook. More

  • Jan 14 2014

    Cyclical Outlook

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC this morning to discuss the cyclical outlook. More

  • Jan 14 2014

    Job Growth Not Trending Higher

    Even ignoring December data, the household survey, which sees far smaller revisions, counts a million fewer jobs created over the prior 12 months than the establishment survey. More

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[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
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This approach works like a charm.
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Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
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- Fortune Magazine
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.
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