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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Sep 24 2011

    Recall Last May

    "As if to underline the Fed's downbeat assessment (which was echoed by the International Monetary Fund), the Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. weekly leading indicator has deteriorated. More

  • Sep 23 2011

    WLI Slips

    The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly index of leading economic indicators is still, you guessed it, pointing in the wrong direction. More

  • Sep 19 2011

    Cycles & Current Events

    ECRI's Achuthan discusses current events from ECRI's cyclical vantage point. More

  • Sep 18 2011

    Skating on Thin Ice

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with NPR's All Things Considered about the risk of recession and the jobs challenge that predated the recession. More

  • Sep 16 2011

    New Recession Risk

    Last year economist Lakshman Achuthan said he thought the United States had emerged from the depths of a recession, but today the picture looks a bit more grim. More

  • Sep 16 2011

    WLI Falls

    The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly index of leading economic indicators continues to trot in the wrong direction, down. More

  • Sep 11 2011

    Serious recession threat for U.S.

    New York-based Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) tracks some 20 large economies contributing about 80% of the world GDP. More

  • Sep 10 2011

    Interview on Economy

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be interviewed on All Things Considered this weekend at 5:00 PM (ET). More

  • Sep 09 2011

    WLI Ticks Up, but Growth Weakens

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth ticked higher in the latest week. More

  • Sep 06 2011

    Update on Jobs Outlook

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Fox Business this morning to discuss the cyclical outlook, including jobs. More

  • Sep 03 2011

    Outlook for Growth

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join CNN's Your $$$$$ at 1:00 PM (ET) on Saturday, and then again at 3:00 PM on Sunday. More

  • Sep 02 2011

    Long-Term Problem for Long-Term Unemployed

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be on NBC Nightly News discussing how the problems with employment predated the Great Recession. More

  • Sep 02 2011

    Interview on Jobs

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan returns to Bloomberg TV following to follow up on an early May appearance. More

  • Sep 02 2011

    Eurozone FIG Edges Up

    Inflationary pressures in the euro zone edged up in July from June's seven-month low. More

  • Sep 02 2011

    WLI Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week. More

  • Sep 02 2011

    Recession Risk Rising

    "As if Friday's report that showed job creation at a dead stall wasn't bad enough, economists say the worst could be yet to come. More

  • Sep 02 2011

    U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Down

    U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge rose to 99.5 from 98.5 in July. More

  • Aug 31 2011

    Trend of Slowing Jobs Growth

    Segment including ECRI runs from the 9:00 to 11:40 minute mark. More

  • Aug 31 2011

    Job Market to Remain Weak

    Near the end of the interview Lakshman misquoted the number of robots currently used by Foxconn, China’s largest private employer (10,000, not 10 million!). More

  • Aug 31 2011

    Jobs Outlook Tough for Policy

    President Obama will need a home run when he rolls out his new, long-awaited jobs plan next week. More

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Testimonial

For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
- ECRI Professional Member
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
I find that ECRI’s historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
- ECRI Professional Member
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock – deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
- ECRI Professional Member
           

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