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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • May 01 2014

    Is the U.S. Heading Toward a Deeper Downturn?

    The economy's leading indexes were pointing to a slowdown before bad weather hit earlier this year -- but there is much more to the economy’s weakness than weather. More

  • Apr 30 2014

    Failure to Launch – Confirmed

    The year began with an overwhelming consensus: that the economy was "taking off" and would soon reach "escape velocity." We disagreed (Jan. 14). More

  • Apr 25 2014

    Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

    The Weekly Leading Index edged down in its latest reading. More

  • Apr 17 2014

    Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

    In March, the U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rose to 2.9% from 1.6% in February, but was down from 4.0% in January. More

  • Apr 11 2014

    ECRI WLI Up

    The index itself increased to 134.9 from 133.5. More

  • Apr 04 2014

    U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Dips

    "With the dip in the USFIG pushing it further below its earlier highs, underlying inflation pressures remain restrained" More

  • Apr 04 2014

    Eurozone inflation pressures muted

    Inflationary pressures remain muted in the eurozone, doing little to allay fears about deflation in the 18-nation bloc, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed. More

  • Apr 04 2014

    ECRI WLI Unchanged

    The index itself was unchanged at 133.6. More

  • Apr 03 2014

    Cycle Peak for Russia

    Today ECRI is announcing a new Russian growth rate cycle peak in December 2011. More

  • Mar 28 2014

    ECRI WLI Ticks Up

    The index itself increased to 133.5 from 133.0. More

  • Mar 21 2014

    ECRI WLI Ticks Down

    The index itself fell to 132.9 from 133.6. More

  • Mar 14 2014

    ECRI WLI Edges Up

    The upturn follows a sharp slowdown in growth during late January and February. More

  • Mar 14 2014

    Price Signals of Global Slack

    World trade price growth has seen almost continuous deflation since early 2012, and its renewed weakness suggests even more slack in the global economy. More

  • Mar 07 2014

    Growth Rate Cycle Dates for China

    Today ECRI is announcing new Chinese growth rate cycle dates, a trough in Dec. 2010, and a peak in Feb. 2012. More

  • Mar 07 2014

    ECRI WLI Up

    According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 1.9% in the week ended Feb. 28, up slightly from 1.7% in the previous week. More

  • Mar 07 2014

    U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

    "Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG remains below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release, "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still in check." More

  • Mar 07 2014

    Euro zone inflationary pressures still subdued

    Euro zone inflation pressures, while having edged up, remain subdued. More

  • Feb 28 2014

    ECRI WLI Ticking Down

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to weaken. More

  • Feb 21 2014

    ECRI WLI Growth Slips

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to weaken. More

  • Feb 14 2014

    ECRI WLI Drops

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity took a steep step down last week. More

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Testimonial

As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI’s array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
- ECRI Professional Member
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
- Fortune Magazine
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
           

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