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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Mar 16 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week. More

  • Mar 15 2012

    Why Our Recession Call Stands

    Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor give us no choice. More

  • Mar 09 2012

    WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week. More

  • Mar 09 2012

    Flat FIG

    U.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in February. More

  • Mar 09 2012

    Euro Inflation Pressures Ease

    Falling further from its early 2011 high, the EZFIG declined to a 21-month low in its latest reading. More

  • Mar 07 2012

    New Growth Rate Cycle Dates

    We have recently determined growth rate cycle peak dates for France, Italy and Switzerland. More

  • Mar 02 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up to its highest level in six months last week. More

  • Feb 29 2012

    Q4 GDP Revision & Recession

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with CNNi following today's revision to 2011 Q4 GDP. More

  • Feb 24 2012

    U.S. Growth Slowing, Not Reviving

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Surveillance to point out that U.S. economic growth has actually slowed in recent months, contrary to the consensus view. More

  • Feb 24 2012

    WLI Drops

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped last week. More

  • Feb 24 2012

    U.S. Growth at 21-Month Low

    The hard data which officially define recession show that U.S. economic growth has been slowing, not reviving. More

  • Feb 24 2012

    Velocity of Money Dropping

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses our recession call, including the Weekly Leading Index and velocity of money. More

  • Feb 17 2012

    WLI Falls

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week. More

  • Feb 10 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged higher in the latest week. More

  • Feb 03 2012

    WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly in the latest week. More

  • Feb 03 2012

    U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

    U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 101.2. More

  • Feb 03 2012

    Euro Inflation Pressures Ease

    Inflationary pressures in the euro zone slipped further in December. More

  • Feb 01 2012

    U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

    U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in January. More

  • Jan 27 2012

    WLI Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth declined modestly in the latest week. More

  • Jan 20 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week to its highest level in five months. More

Upcoming Events

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Testimonial

Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
- The Economist
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.
- The New York Times
           

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Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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