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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Feb 08 2014

    Failure to Launch

    As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More

  • Feb 07 2014

    ECRI WLI Slips

    The index itself fell to 133.2 from 133.7. More

  • Feb 07 2014

    US Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Up

    "The USFIG stands well below its earlier highs, and is still close to October's 22-month low," ECRI said in a release, "Thus, underlying inflation pressures remain restrained." More

  • Feb 07 2014

    Inflationary pressures easing in euro zone

    Inflationary pressures in the euro zone remain in a downtrend, likely adding to fears about deflation in the 18-nation bloc. More

  • Jan 31 2014

    Weekly Leading Index Steady

    The WLI held steady at 133.8. More

  • Jan 24 2014

    ECRI WLI Ticks Down

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity is picking up strength. More

  • Jan 22 2014

    Secular Stagnation

    GDP growth (yoy) has been less than 2% for four straight quarters, something we’ve never seen except during or right after a recession. More

  • Jan 17 2014

    ECRI WLI Ticks Up

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity showed a burst of momentum last week. More

  • Jan 15 2014

    Cyclical & Secular Outlook

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined BNN to discuss the cyclical outlook. More

  • Jan 14 2014

    Cyclical Outlook

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC this morning to discuss the cyclical outlook. More

  • Jan 14 2014

    Job Growth Not Trending Higher

    Even ignoring December data, the household survey, which sees far smaller revisions, counts a million fewer jobs created over the prior 12 months than the establishment survey. More

  • Jan 10 2014

    ECRI WLI Rises

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity gathered strength last week. More

  • Jan 10 2014

    US Future Inflation Gauge Rises

    Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG remains near October's 22-month low. More

  • Jan 10 2014

    Eurozone inflation pressures rise but remain subdued

    Although the EZFIG has increased for three months, it remains in a downtrend and close to August's 44-month low. More

  • Jan 03 2014

    ECRI WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose last week. More

  • Dec 27 2013

    ECRI WLI Growth Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth increased last week while the annualized growth rate slowed. More

  • Dec 20 2013

    ECRI WLI Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth decreased last week. More

  • Dec 13 2013

    ECRI WLI Drops

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower last week. More

  • Dec 11 2013

    Becoming Japan: Update

    The ECB rate cut was spurred by a “surprise” drop in Eurozone inflation in Oct. But, U.S. inflation was even lower then, and the Fed’s key inflation measure fell further below its 2% target. More

  • Dec 06 2013

    ECRI WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth strengthened last week. More

Testimonial

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- ECRI Professional Member
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
- Sydney Morning Herald
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
- The Economist
           

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