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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Apr 03 2014

    Cycle Peak for Russia

    Today ECRI is announcing a new Russian growth rate cycle peak in December 2011. More

  • Mar 28 2014

    ECRI WLI Ticks Up

    The index itself increased to 133.5 from 133.0. More

  • Mar 21 2014

    ECRI WLI Ticks Down

    The index itself fell to 132.9 from 133.6. More

  • Mar 14 2014

    ECRI WLI Edges Up

    The upturn follows a sharp slowdown in growth during late January and February. More

  • Mar 14 2014

    Price Signals of Global Slack

    World trade price growth has seen almost continuous deflation since early 2012, and its renewed weakness suggests even more slack in the global economy. More

  • Mar 07 2014

    Growth Rate Cycle Dates for China

    Today ECRI is announcing new Chinese growth rate cycle dates, a trough in Dec. 2010, and a peak in Feb. 2012. More

  • Mar 07 2014

    ECRI WLI Up

    According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 1.9% in the week ended Feb. 28, up slightly from 1.7% in the previous week. More

  • Mar 07 2014

    U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

    "Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG remains below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release, "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still in check." More

  • Mar 07 2014

    Euro zone inflationary pressures still subdued

    Euro zone inflation pressures, while having edged up, remain subdued. More

  • Feb 28 2014

    ECRI WLI Ticking Down

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to weaken. More

  • Feb 21 2014

    ECRI WLI Growth Slips

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to weaken. More

  • Feb 14 2014

    ECRI WLI Drops

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity took a steep step down last week. More

  • Feb 12 2014

    New Growth Rate Cycle Dates for Germany, France, Italy & Spain

    Today ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle trough dates for Germany, France, Italy and Spain. More

  • Feb 08 2014

    Failure to Launch

    As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More

  • Feb 07 2014

    ECRI WLI Slips

    The index itself fell to 133.2 from 133.7. More

  • Feb 07 2014

    US Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Up

    "The USFIG stands well below its earlier highs, and is still close to October's 22-month low," ECRI said in a release, "Thus, underlying inflation pressures remain restrained." More

  • Feb 07 2014

    Inflationary pressures easing in euro zone

    Inflationary pressures in the euro zone remain in a downtrend, likely adding to fears about deflation in the 18-nation bloc. More

  • Jan 31 2014

    Weekly Leading Index Steady

    The WLI held steady at 133.8. More

  • Jan 24 2014

    ECRI WLI Ticks Down

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity is picking up strength. More

  • Jan 22 2014

    Secular Stagnation

    GDP growth (yoy) has been less than 2% for four straight quarters, something we’ve never seen except during or right after a recession. More

Testimonial

In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock – deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
- ECRI Professional Member
I find that ECRI’s historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
- ECRI Professional Member
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
- Fortune Magazine
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
- Sydney Morning Herald
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction – even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that – lead where things were headed.
- Randall Forsyth, Barron's
           

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