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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • May 09 2012

    Update to Feb Interview

    Achuthan discusses ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about half a year after a recession begins before a negative real-time GDP print is released. More

  • May 04 2012

    WLI Growth Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth ticked up, but its growth rate fell to zero. More

  • May 04 2012

    U.S. FIG Ticks Down

    U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in April. More

  • Apr 27 2012

    WLI Growth Slips Again

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly last week. More

  • Apr 20 2012

    WLI Drops

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week. More

  • Apr 20 2012

    ECRI Insight: The Yo-Yo Years

    The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. More

  • Apr 13 2012

    WLI Falls

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth eased last week. More

  • Apr 06 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week. More

  • Apr 06 2012

    Inflation Gauge Dips

    U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in March. More

  • Apr 06 2012

    Some Dreary Forecasts From Recovery Skeptics

    When a lackluster jobs report came in on Friday morning, some economists, investors and forecasters were hardly surprised. More

  • Apr 06 2012

    Eurozone FIG Rises

    Despite its latest uptick, the EZFIG is still in a clear cyclical downtrend. Euro zone inflation is likely to remain in a cyclical downtrend in the coming months. More

  • Mar 30 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week. More

  • Mar 23 2012

    WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week. More

  • Mar 22 2012

    The Yo-Yo Years

    Presentation slides and notes from Frankfurt conference about the risk of contagion, explaining why both developed and developing economies are now in the "Yo-Yo Years." More

  • Mar 16 2012

    WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week. More

  • Mar 15 2012

    Why Our Recession Call Stands

    Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor give us no choice. More

  • Mar 09 2012

    WLI Ticks Up

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week. More

  • Mar 09 2012

    Flat FIG

    U.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in February. More

  • Mar 09 2012

    Euro Inflation Pressures Ease

    Falling further from its early 2011 high, the EZFIG declined to a 21-month low in its latest reading. More

  • Mar 07 2012

    New Growth Rate Cycle Dates

    We have recently determined growth rate cycle peak dates for France, Italy and Switzerland. More

Testimonial

ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
- The Economist
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
- ECRI Professional Member
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction – even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that – lead where things were headed.
- Randall Forsyth, Barron's
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
- Fortune Magazine
           

Our Track Record

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Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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