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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Mar 28 2013

    Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth held steady last week. More

  • Mar 22 2013

    Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth was unchanged last week. More

  • Mar 18 2013

    Stock Prices and Recessions

    When people say that we cannot be in recession now because stock prices are rising, it is important to know that we have seen this movie before. More

  • Mar 15 2013

    ECRI WLI Growth Ticks Down

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged higher last week, though the annualized growth rate faltered. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    Job Growth is Slowing

    ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses how, even with the stronger-than-expected jobs report, year-over-year payroll jobs growth has fallen to an 18-month low. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    Interview Summary

    In a few interviews this week we discussed ECRI’s recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. Each interview clip covers different aspects of that presentation as described below. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    Seasonal Factors at Play in Jobs Report

    Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    U.S. Price Pressures Pull Back

    Despite a recent rise in energy prices, inflationary pressures in the U.S. remain contained. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    ECRI WLI Growth Eases

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    Eurozone inflation pressures drop to 35-month low

    Eurozone inflation is likely to fall further as price pressures eased close to a three-year low in January, according to the Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    Recession in the Yo-Yo Years

    Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. See images and notes on the state of the business cycle. More

  • Mar 07 2013

    Recession Recognition

    ECRI's Achuthan joins The Daily Ticker to discuss recession recognition light of his recent presentation: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More

  • Mar 07 2013

    Recession Update: Part 2 of 2

    ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss his recent presentation: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More

  • Mar 07 2013

    Recession Update: Part 1 of 2

    Lakshman Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss ECRI's recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More

  • Mar 06 2013

    Interview: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years

    Lakshman Achuthan joins CNBC to discuss ECRI's recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More

  • Mar 01 2013

    ECRI WLI Falls

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week. More

  • Feb 22 2013

    ECRI WLI Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week. More

  • Feb 15 2013

    ECRI WLI Dips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week. More

  • Feb 08 2013

    ECRI WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly last week. More

  • Feb 07 2013

    New Japanese Recession Date

    Today ECRI is announcing the latest business cycle peak for Japan as August 2010, and the latest growth rate cycle trough date for Japan as April 2011. More

Testimonial

"eerily accurate"
- National Public Radio
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI’s array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
- ECRI Professional Member
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
           

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