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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News & Events

  • Mar 08 2013

    Eurozone inflation pressures drop to 35-month low

    Eurozone inflation is likely to fall further as price pressures eased close to a three-year low in January, according to the Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge. More

  • Mar 08 2013

    Recession in the Yo-Yo Years

    Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. See images and notes on the state of the business cycle. More

  • Mar 07 2013

    Recession Recognition

    ECRI's Achuthan joins The Daily Ticker to discuss recession recognition light of his recent presentation: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More

  • Mar 07 2013

    Recession Update: Part 2 of 2

    ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss his recent presentation: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More

  • Mar 07 2013

    Recession Update: Part 1 of 2

    Lakshman Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss ECRI's recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More

  • Mar 06 2013

    Interview: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years

    Lakshman Achuthan joins CNBC to discuss ECRI's recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More

  • Mar 01 2013

    ECRI WLI Falls

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week. More

  • Feb 22 2013

    ECRI WLI Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week. More

  • Feb 15 2013

    ECRI WLI Dips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week. More

  • Feb 08 2013

    ECRI WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly last week. More

  • Feb 07 2013

    New Japanese Recession Date

    Today ECRI is announcing the latest business cycle peak for Japan as August 2010, and the latest growth rate cycle trough date for Japan as April 2011. More

  • Feb 01 2013

    ECRI WLI Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week. More

  • Feb 01 2013

    Price Pressures Still Rising in January

    Even after the economy stalled in the fourth quarter, inflation pressures picked up at the start of 2013. More

  • Feb 01 2013

    Euro zone inflation pressures ease to 34-month low

    "Falling again in its latest reading, the EZFIG (suggests) Euro zone inflation is likely to ebb further in the months ahead," More

  • Jan 25 2013

    ECRI WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up last week. More

  • Jan 18 2013

    ECRI WLI Rises

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week. More

  • Jan 04 2013

    ECRI WLI Slips

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth dropped in the latest week. More

  • Jan 04 2013

    U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

    U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in December. More

  • Jan 04 2013

    Eurozone Inflation Pressures Remain Low

    "The EZFIG was unchanged in November, and is in a prolonged cyclical downtrend, continuing to hover near June's 27-month low. Thus, euro zone inflation pressures remain weak," said ECRI. More

  • Dec 29 2012

    New U.K. Business Cycle Dates

    ECRI has determined that the latest business cycle peak for the United Kingdom as August 2010, and the latest growth rate cycle trough date for the United Kingdom as May 2011. More

Testimonial

ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
- Sydney Morning Herald
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock – deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
- ECRI Professional Member
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction – even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that – lead where things were headed.
- Randall Forsyth, Barron's
           

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