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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • December 1, 2016
  • NBR

Sustained 3 to 4% GDP Growth Is A Huge Stretch

We’d need double the productivity growth of the Reagan years.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

U.S. WLI Edged Up

ECRI December 2, 2016

U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 142.1, while the growth rate increased to 8.3%.   More

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises Again

Bond Buyer December 2, 2016

102-month high shows that underlying inflation pressures are still mounting.   More

Multiple Jobs Needed to Make Ends Meet

ECRI December 2, 2016

With wage growth unable to keep pace with inflation, more people need to work multiple lower-paying jobs in order to make ends meet.   More

Sustained 3 to 4% GDP Growth Is A Huge Stretch

NBR December 1, 2016

We’d need double the productivity growth of the Reagan years.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.4
Public update:

Dec 02
10:30am

Member update:

Dec 02
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.4
Public update:

Dec 02
9:40am

Member update:

Dec 02
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 0.4
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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