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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • May 14, 2015
  • ECRI

Surf's Up

Industrial commodity price inflation is in a broadbased cyclical upturn that is about much more than just oil.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Scoping Out a Phantom Recession

New York Times May 23, 2015

“It’s been about as weak as it could be without falling into recession,” Mr. Achuthan said.    More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Slips

ECRI May 22, 2015

The U.S. WLI slips to 133.9, the growth rate ticks up to 1.5%.   More

U.S. WLI Ticks Up

ECRI May 15, 2015

The level ticked up to 134.6 from 134.2. The growth rate rose to 1.2% from 0.5%.   More

Surf's Up

ECRI May 14, 2015

Industrial commodity price inflation is in a broadbased cyclical upturn that is about much more than just oil.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.7
Public update:

May 22
10:30am

Member update:

May 22
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.9
Public update:

May 08
9:40am

Member update:

May 08
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -1.0
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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