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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • November 17, 2017
  • ECRI

China Data Disappoints, As Expected

Markets were disappointed by Chinese data this week, but ECRI’s September reporting warned of this very outcome.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Weekly Leading Index Increases

ECRI November 22, 2017

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth ticks down.   More

China Data Disappoints, As Expected

ECRI November 17, 2017

Markets were disappointed by Chinese data this week, but ECRI’s September reporting warned of this very outcome.   More

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

ECRI November 17, 2017

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth eases.   More

Inflation Cycle Locked Into Downturn

ECRI November 15, 2017

ECRI was warning of the inflation downturn when the Fed was celebrating its midyear “Mission Accomplished” moment.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.8
Public update:

Nov 22
10:30am

Member update:

Nov 22
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.8
Public update:

Nov 03
9:40am

Member update:

Nov 03
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 1.5
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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