A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • January 17, 2017
  • ECRI

Disentangling Cyclical from Structural

Hong Kong presentation slides and notes.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Posted January 13, 2017

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted January 11, 2017

International Focus

Posted January 06, 2017

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted January 04, 2017

U.S. Focus

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted June 30, 2016

Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors

Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the “productivity puzzle.”   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jun 20, 2016

Disentangling Cyclical from Structural

ECRI January 17, 2017

Hong Kong presentation slides and notes.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Up

ECRI January 13, 2017

U.S. WLI growth rate is at a 348-week high.   More

2016 Shapes 2017 Cyclical Outlook

ECRI January 13, 2017

Cycle calls for inflation and growth extend into New Year.    More

U.S. WLI Monthly Rose

ECRI January 10, 2017

U.S. WLI level at 142.1, growth rate increased to 11.8%.   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.2
Public update:

Jan 13

Member update:

Jan 13


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.6
Public update:

Jan 06

Member update:

Jan 06

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 0.3
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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