A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • July 17, 2018
  • CNBC

Stealth Slowdown Unfolding

The U.S. consumer is under pressure, and it’s getting worse.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Posted July 20, 2018

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted July 19, 2018

U.S. Essentials

Posted July 13, 2018

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted July 11, 2018

International Focus

Posted July 06, 2018

ECRI Weekly Update

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted January 31, 2018

The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index (WLI)

The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth.   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

ECRI July 20, 2018

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slows further to 0.9%.   More

Stealth Slowdown Unfolding

CNBC July 17, 2018

The U.S. consumer is under pressure, and it’s getting worse.   More

Jobs Report, GDP, and the Fed

Reuters July 6, 2018

ECRI's Achuthan joined Reuters TV to discuss the jobs report, including the employment/population ratio, as well as industrial commodities, GDP and the Fed.   More

Trade War and Recession Risk

Bloomberg July 6, 2018

ECRI’s Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV to discuss global trade and recession risk, the Fed and industrial commodities.   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.1
Public update:

Jul 20

Member update:

Jul 20


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.2
Public update:

Jul 06

Member update:

Jul 06

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.0
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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