A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • October 17, 2016
  • ECRI

“Early” and “Late” Cycle Verdicts are Baseless

It’s illogical to assert that the likely duration of an expansion is around six to ten years merely because the last three U.S. expansions lasted that long.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted June 30, 2016

Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors

Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the “productivity puzzle.”   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jun 20, 2016

Interview: Recession Risk, The Fed & Fiscal Policy

Financial Sense October 21, 2016

Slowdown almost 2 years old, but no recession imminent.   More

U.S. WLI Edges Up

ECRI October 21, 2016

U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 139.6, while the growth rate ticks down to 8.8%.    More

Fed Risks Lehman Blunder Repeat as US Recession Storm Gathers

The Daily Telegraph October 20, 2016

We have been seeing a 'growth-rate' cyclical downturn for the last two years. The longer this goes on, the less wiggle room there is.   More

U.S. Coincident Index Ticks Down

ECRI October 19, 2016

The cyclical downturn in economic growth continues with USCI growth at a 33 month low.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.2
Public update:

Oct 21

Member update:

Oct 21


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.4
Public update:

Oct 07

Member update:

Oct 07

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 0.4
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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