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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • June 15, 2019
  • CNBC

Should the Fed Cut Rates in June?

ECRI’s research suggests the Fed should have begun a rate cut cycle last September.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Posted June 19, 2019

U.S. Essentials

Posted June 14, 2019

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted June 12, 2019

International Focus

Posted June 07, 2019

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted June 05, 2019

U.S. Focus

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted January 31, 2018

The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index (WLI)

The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth.   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018

Should the Fed Cut Rates in June?

CNBC June 15, 2019

ECRI’s research suggests the Fed should have begun a rate cut cycle last September.   More

Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

ECRI June 14, 2019

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth decreases to -1.9%.   More

U.S. Inflation Cycle and More China Stimulus

Bloomberg June 10, 2019

ECRI’s Achuthan spoke with Bloomberg Daybreak Asia about ECRI’s inflation cycle research, how global slowing preceded the trade war, and why more Chinese stimulus is likely.   More

Inflation, the Fed and the FIG

CNBC June 7, 2019

The Fed and the bond market have both been way behind the curve in anticipating the inflation cycle downturn. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge was far more prescient.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.4
Public update:

Jun 14
10:30am

Member update:

Jun 14
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.7
Public update:

Jun 07
9:40am

Member update:

Jun 07
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 1.3
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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