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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • September 4, 2018
  • Bloomberg

ECRI on EM vs. U.S. Growth

Bloomberg TV discussion about how emerging market weakness fits into ECRI’s public global cyclical outlook, including the U.S., and monetary policy.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Posted September 21, 2018

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted September 20, 2018

U.S. Essentials

Posted September 14, 2018

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted September 12, 2018

U.S. Focus

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted January 31, 2018

The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index (WLI)

The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth.   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI September 21, 2018

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up to 0.2%.   More

Interview on Jobs Report, Wage Growth & Trade Sanctions

Reuters September 7, 2018

ECRI's Achuthan spoke with Reuters about the jobs report and how wage growth rising is consistent with a stealth slowdown in economic growth. Trade sanctions are also discussed.   More

ECRI on EM vs. U.S. Growth

Bloomberg September 4, 2018

Bloomberg TV discussion about how emerging market weakness fits into ECRI’s public global cyclical outlook, including the U.S., and monetary policy.   More

Will the Flattening Yield Curve Lead to Recession?

Barron's August 31, 2018

In contrast to the latest robust GDP readings, ECRI’s broader U.S. Coincident Index is below last October’s peak.   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.2
Public update:

Sep 21
10:30am

Member update:

Sep 21
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.5
Public update:

Sep 07
9:40am

Member update:

Sep 07
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.3
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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