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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • February 9, 2016
  • ECRI

The Myth of the Resilient Consumer

The premise of a consumer-driven pickup in U.S. economic growth is demonstrably false.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Up

ECRI February 12, 2016

U.S. WLI ticked up to 130.0, growth rate slipped to -2.6%.   More

U.S. WLI Monthly Edged Down

ECRI February 10, 2016

U.S. WLI (monthly data) edged down to 128.6, growth rate falls to -2.3%.   More

The Myth of the Resilient Consumer

ECRI February 9, 2016

The premise of a consumer-driven pickup in U.S. economic growth is demonstrably false.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Slips

ECRI February 5, 2016

U.S. WLI slips to 129.6, growth rate ticks down to -2.3%.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.4
Public update:

Feb 12
10:30am

Member update:

Feb 12
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.5
Public update:

Feb 05
9:40am

Member update:

Feb 05
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.9
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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