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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • November 12, 2018
  • ECRI

Construction Crumbling

A decisive deterioration in the construction sector outlook has occurred in the context of the worrisome downturn in home price growth.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Posted November 16, 2018

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted November 14, 2018

International Focus

Posted November 09, 2018

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted November 07, 2018

U.S. Focus

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted January 31, 2018

The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index (WLI)

The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth.   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI November 16, 2018

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slips to -3.0%.   More

Construction Crumbling

ECRI November 12, 2018

A decisive deterioration in the construction sector outlook has occurred in the context of the worrisome downturn in home price growth.   More

Weekly Leading Index Falls

ECRI November 9, 2018

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to -2.6%.   More

Interview Updating Market Correction Call

CNBC November 8, 2018

The cyclical risk of stock market corrections remains elevated as U.S. economic growth continues to slow.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.2
Public update:

Nov 16
10:30am

Member update:

Nov 16
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 1.2
Public update:

Nov 02
9:40am

Member update:

Nov 02
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.3
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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