A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • May 4, 2016
  • PCBE

Where Are We in The Economic Cycle?

NABE Conference Slides with Notes

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Where Are We in The Economic Cycle?

PCBE May 4, 2016

NABE Conference Slides with Notes   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI April 29, 2016

U.S. WLI ticks up to 135.5, growth rate increases to 4.5%.   More

Recession Fears Still Overblown

Forbes April 28, 2016

Talking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why there’s a long way to go before calling a recession.   More

U.S. Headed for 'Stagflation-Lite'

Forbes April 27, 2016

Speaking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why "stagflation-lite" is in our future.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.3
Public update:

Apr 29

Member update:

Apr 29


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.7
Public update:

Apr 01

Member update:

Apr 01

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.7
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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