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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • April 18, 2019
  • Levy Economics Institute

Probing Powell’s Patience

ECRI presentation slides discuss the Fed’s review of its monetary policy approach in the context of Powell’s view of the Greenspan Fed.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Probing Powell’s Patience

Levy Economics Institute April 18, 2019

ECRI presentation slides discuss the Fed’s review of its monetary policy approach in the context of Powell’s view of the Greenspan Fed.   More

Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

ECRI April 18, 2019

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to 1.2%.   More

Weekly Leading Index Increases

ECRI April 12, 2019

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises to 0.2%.   More

Full RV Interview: ECRI Slowdown Call, Process & Current Outlook

Real Vision TV March 30, 2019

30-minute interview on ECRI’s 2018 slowdown call, our process, and updates to our outlook.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.5
Public update:

Apr 18
10:30am

Member update:

Apr 18
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.5
Public update:

Apr 05
9:40am

Member update:

Apr 05
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.0
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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