A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

ECRI Professional Services

ECRI professional services deliver a clear view of the path ahead. Forewarned of upcoming turning points in economic and inflation cycles, our members have the clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.

Investment Managers

For decades, investment managers have looked to us to navigate cyclical shifts in market perceptions. This has typically enabled them to lower risk, increase returns, and outperform their peers. A 5% increase in annual returns for our members is not unusual - $500 million on a $10 billion portfolio.

Business Executives

Business executives use ECRI to improve the timing of their critical tactical decisions such as building or reducing inventory and adjusting pricing and staffing levels. Members are prepared for the economy's swings – not surprised by them – and therefore succeed when their competition stumbles.

Government Policymakers

Government policymakers can use ECRI to improve the timing of policy decisions. Since monetary policy typically lags economic activity and fiscal policy must be sensitive to the cyclical outlook, a reliable assessment of turning point risk should produce smoother macroeconomic outcomes.

ECRI's services are designed to deliver a clear, actionable cyclical outlook. It includes all of the information you need to comprehend the evolving dynamics of a complex global economy.

Private Advisory Sessions

Access to ECRI principals – regular video/telephone conferences and in-person meetings to discuss nuances of the economic outlook alongside your specific concerns.

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Proprietary Database

Access to all of ECRI's leading indexes covering 21 economies delivered to your desktop in real time.

Professional Reports

U.S. and International Essentials, Focus and Weekly Updates.

Learn more about Professional Reports and download sample excerpts

Professional A Global

Private advisory sessions
Professional reports
Proprietary database
Up to 20 users, up to three locations

Professional A

Private advisory sessions
Professional reports
Proprietary database
Up to 10 users in one location

Professional B

Professional reports
Proprietary database
Up to 3 users in one location
Note: Private advisory sessions are not included

Contact ECRI

Email

pro@businesscycle.com

Phone

New York: + 1 (212) 557-7788
London: + 44 (207) 060-1223

Contact ECRI Online

FAQ

Testimonial

ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.

- IMF

I find that ECRI’s historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.

- ECRI Professional Member

Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.

- The New York Times

(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.

- Fortune 100 Company

I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction – even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that – lead where things were headed.

- Randall Forsyth, Barron's

ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.

- Harvard Business Review

Our Track Record

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

View the Timeline