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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Oct 24 2011

Will the consumer save the day?

Recently, a number of economic data releases watched by economists have come in "above expectations," thereby easing recession fears and buoying the markets.In particular, September’s retail sales data came in well above expectations, leading many analysts to downplay recession risk. ECRI’s latest analysis shows that from a cyclical perspective the reality is very different, with critical implications for the consumer spending outlook.

Related News & Events

Squaring Higher Stocks with Recession

CNBC October 24, 2011

Flashback to an April 2008 interview discussing how ECRI's recession call remained intact despite a rise in stock prices and other data. More

 

ECRI in Toronto

ECRI October 31, 2011

ECRI principals will be in Toronto to meet with professional members on October 31, 2011.

 

An Ugly Forecast That’s Been Right Before

New York Times October 9, 2011

LET’S face it: economic forecasting is an act of sheer hubris. Which, of course, only incites people to do it. More