A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Mar 28 2012

Undertow in Credit Conditions?

Recent marginal interest rate increases have scarcely surprised the consensus – who take this tightening as a sign the U.S. economy is in a firming economic recovery. As such, many expect credit growth to improve further over the next year.

But is such extrapolation warranted? After all, borrowers are sensitive to even modest changes in credit conditions.  ECRI’s U.S. Leading Credit Index (USLCrI), which is featured in our latest report, provides clear indication of the cyclical direction of credit growth in coming quarters.

Related News & Events

The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 22, 2012

Presentation slides and notes from Frankfurt conference about the risk of contagion, explaining why both developed and developing economies are now in the "Yo-Yo Years." More


U.S. Growth at 21-Month Low

CNBC February 24, 2012

The hard data which officially define recession show that U.S. economic growth has been slowing, not reviving. More


Bahama Meetings

ECRI March 30, 2012

ECRI will visit the Bahamas to meet with professional clients on March 27 - 30, 2012.