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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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May 24 2012

U.S. Job Growth Prospects

Stronger U.S. jobs growth earlier this year had many hoping for a sustained economic recovery. Instead, U.S. job growth has weakened since its February peak alongside other disappointing economic data. As a result, the overall mood regarding recovery has dimmed a bit lately. Regardless, the consensus still believes that job growth will firm in months ahead.

In this context, it is useful to examine the recent movements in ECRI’s U.S. Leading Employment Index (USLEI), which is designed to anticipate cyclical turns in employment conditions and provides a clear answer to the direction of jobs growth in coming months.

Related Insights

The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 1, 2012

The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.

 

Related News & Events

Rising GDP Doesn't Rule Out Recession

CNN May 11, 2012

Yes, U.S. GDP is still rising, according to the latest reports. But that doesn't mean we've dodged a new recession. More

 

Oslo

ECRI June 4, 2012

ECRI principals will be in Oslo to meet with professional members on June 4, 2012.