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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jun 28 2012

Shifting Global Industrial Outlook

Global industrial growth has indeed been moderating as shown by recent weakness in related coincident data. In fact, late last year ECRI forecast a global industrial slowdown when at the time there was a prevailing perception that the U.S. economy would forge ahead despite Europe’s crisis.

While this optimistic consensus view has begun to dim, ECRI’s long leading indexes for global industrial growth offer critical clues to the depth and duration of the downturn.

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The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 1, 2012

The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.

 

Related News & Events

Revoking Recession: 48th Time's the Charm?

ECRI May 9, 2012

Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? More