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Apr 20 2012

Recovery vs. Recession

It has become a universal article of faith that U.S. economic growth is steadily improving. Naturally, any recession fears are now considered distant memories.

In its latest reading, the Fed’s popular “stall speed” measure of Gross Domestic Income (GDI) growth also rose above its 2% recession threshold, further boosting optimism about the U.S. recovery. However, is such an optimistic view warranted?

ECRI’s latest analysis of our coincident indicators alongside the GDI examines whether this optimism is sustainable.

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The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 1, 2012

The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.


Related News & Events


ECRI April 30, 2012

ECRI principals will be in Toronto to meet with professional members on April 30, 2012.