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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 30 2011

Recession Recognition

With the consensus typically recognizing recession only long after it has begun and usually because of a negative GDP print--the fact that these releases are revised many months, years and even decades after their first release may be one reason why it is so difficult for many to pin-down recession timing.

In ECRI’s latest study, we summarize the nature of these revisions and examine how long it usually takes the consensus to recognize a recessionary economy. We also use ECRI’s leading indexes to estimate the recession’s most likely starting point.