All Reports

Dec 30 2011

Recession Recognition

With the consensus typically recognizing recession only long after it has begun and usually because of a negative GDP print--the fact that these releases are revised many months, years and even decades after their first release may be one reason why it is so difficult for many to pin-down recession timing.

In ECRI's latest study, we summarize the nature of these revisions and examine how long it usually takes the consensus to recognize a recessionary economy. We also use ECRI's leading indexes to estimate the recession's most likely starting point.