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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Nov 01 2011

Is Australia Out of Luck?

Australia – which some call “the lucky country” – stands apart from other advanced economies, having sidestepped not only the recent global financial crisis but also the 2001 global recession and the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. However, as the Australian economy is increasingly driven by resource exports, it is becoming more vulnerable to cyclical fluctuations in global growth.

ECRI’s latest in-depth study assesses the cyclical risks Australia is now facing, and provides important clues about whether Australia’s luck has run out for the first time in two decades.

Related News & Events

An Ugly Forecast That’s Been Right Before

New York Times October 9, 2011

LET’S face it: economic forecasting is an act of sheer hubris. Which, of course, only incites people to do it. More

 

Squaring Higher Stocks with Recession

CNBC October 24, 2011

Flashback to an April 2008 interview discussing how ECRI's recession call remained intact despite a rise in stock prices and other data. More