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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Sep 05 2012

What Does the WTO Mean for Russian Industrial Growth?

ECRI has just updated its Russian Leading Industrial Production Index (RULIPI). The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in Russian industrial growth.

After Russia recently gained full membership into the World Trade Organization (WTO), the nation’s Deputy Economy Minister, Andrei Klepach, announced higher forecasts for industrial output growth in 2012 and 2013. This is somewhat in line with a production boom that fueled Chinese export growth after China’s acceptance into the WTO in 2001.

ECRI’s latest update to the RULIPI provides insight into whether Russian industrial output is poised for faster growth in the coming months, or if it will fail to satisfy the Economy Ministry’s increased expectations.

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The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 1, 2012

The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.

 

Related News & Events

Vienna

ECRI September 7, 2012

ECRI principals will visit Vienna to meet with professional members on September 5 - 7, 2012.