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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 19 2013

When Hopes Encounter Realities

Bolstered by better-than-expected readings for many economic releases in March, the prevailing view, both on Wall Street and at the Fed, was that a U.S. economic revival would soon be at hand.

In contrast, most of the widely-watched data releases in April came in below consensus expectations, dashing hopes that strength in both the stock and housing markets would translate into an economic recovery. Indeed, the recent plunge in gold prices and equity market decline is introducing uncertainty among those who have resisted the reality of economic fundamentals.

ECRI’s latest report provides a clear framework for identifying where we are in the inflation and business cycles, and in which direction things are likely to head next.

Related News & Events

Why Recovery Plan Has Faltered

International Business Times April 13, 2013

“We are not seeing signs of an imminent growth upturn that so many claim to see,” [ECRI] concludes." More

 

Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

ECRI April 26, 2013

Yoy nominal GDP growth at or below 3.7% has been seen only in recessionary contexts. In Q1/2013, it slipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in Q4/2012. More