A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Mar 24 2014

When Divining Economic Trends, Look Beyond Weather

While the consensus expected housing to help drive the U.S. economy to faster growth, last week’s existing home sales data did not support those hopes. In fact, existing homes sales contracted for the sixth time in seven months, but the recent weakness – like most disappointing data of late – has been blamed on the weather. Once the economy is free of the negative effects of weather, will housing indeed lend the support the consensus expects?

ECRI’s latest study provides a definitive answer to this question, examining key indicators of the housing market and the auto industry – another sector the consensus sees powering the economy – to look beyond the depressive effects of weather and determine the true state of the economy.

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Failure to Launch

ECRI February 8, 2014

As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More


Price Signals of Global Slack

ECRI March 14, 2014

World trade price growth has seen almost continuous deflation since early 2012, and its renewed weakness suggests even more slack in the global economy. More