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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Mar 13 2014

What Lies Ahead for U.K. Inflation?

In its latest release, U.K. inflation dropped below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time in four years. Many hope that low inflation might allow real wages to rebound, as during the past few years of high inflation, stagnant wage growth meant a decline in living standards for many. Is this optimism well-founded?

ECRI’s latest analysis juxtaposes ECRI’s U.K. Future Inflation Gauge with measures of commodity prices, input prices and consumer prices to definitively answer whether U.K. inflation will continue its retreat.

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Failure to Launch

ECRI February 8, 2014

As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More