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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Feb 18 2014

What Does China’s Trade Data Mean for the Korean Economy?

ECRI has just updated its Korean Long Leading Index (KOLLI). The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

The export-oriented Korean economy has seen some modest improvement since late 2012, with year-over-year (yoy) GDP growth reaching an 11-quarter high in its latest reading and yoy real export growth also hovering near Q2 2013’s seven-quarter high. Additionally, surprising the consensus, buoyant trade data for its key trading partner, China, was recently released. What do China’s strong trade figures mean for its regional neighbors, and might they help to boost the Korean economy?

ECRI’s latest update to the KOLLI provides insight into the trajectory of the Korean economy in the coming months, indicating whether stronger Chinese trade will help to further boost the Korean economy.

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