Contact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

All Reports

 
Nov 01 2012

Higher VAT Hits Spanish Consumer

ECRI has just updated its Spanish Future Inflation Gauge (ESFIG). The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Spanish inflation.

With September’s increase in the value-added tax (VAT) helping push the inflation rate to a 17-month high in October, Spain now has spiking inflation to worry about. Furthermore, year-over-year retail sales fell 11% in September.

The ESFIG’s latest update provides insights into the future trajectory of underlying Spanish inflation pressures, indicating whether the Spanish consumer can expect inflation to rise further, or if the recent spike will be short-lived.

Related News & Events

The 2012 Recession: Are We There Yet?

ECRI September 13, 2012

Nine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that we are in recession – and we do believe we are in recession. More

 

The Tell-Tale Chart

ECRI December 7, 2012

Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. More