A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Mar 05 2014

U.S. Home Price Outlook

Last week saw seemingly good and bad news for the U.S. housing market. While sales of new homes exceeded even the highest estimates, year-over-year growth in the widely followed Case-Shiller Index ticked down in December from November’s multi-year high.

Unfortunately, as coincident measures of housing market activity, neither provides information about housing market prospects. Instead, it is important to pay attention to ECRI’s U.S. Leading Home Price Index (USLHPI), which anticipates cyclical turns in home prices. As such, the USLHPI already shows a clear cyclical direction for home price inflation.

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Failure to Launch

ECRI February 8, 2014

As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More