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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Oct 24 2012

U.S. Home Price Outlook

The housing market crash, which preceded the Great Recession and sparked a meltdown in financial markets in 2008, has long been a serious drag on the economy. Much of the Fed’s efforts to stimulate the economy in recent years has been aimed at propping up the housing market, though with limited effect.

Now, more than three years after the Great Recession ended, positive housing data is fueling hopes that a recovery in home prices is at hand. While more bullish observers see home prices rising by 5% to 7.5% a year, well-known experts like Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller are not yet convinced that the turnaround is here, stating earlier this month that he did not “see a reason to call this yet a major turning point.”

In this context, ECRI has updated its home price cycle analysis from April 2012 to determine whether the home price recovery is a mirage or a reality and what the implications might be for the broader economy.

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The 2012 Recession: Are We There Yet?

ECRI September 13, 2012

Nine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that we are in recession – and we do believe we are in recession. More