A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 14 2014

U.S. Corporate Credit Conditions

Understandably, following years of monetary accommodation, by Q4 2013 U.S. nonfinancial corporate debt had risen to a record high. Yet, digging beneath the “record high” headline, we see that nonfinancial corporate debt growth actually fell in Q4 to its lowest reading in over a year. Is this indicative of even more weakness ahead, or just a temporary slip?

ECRI’s latest report updates its leading index of nonfinancial corporate debt growth, with clear indications for where this measure is headed in the quarters to come.

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Price Signals of Global Slack

ECRI March 14, 2014

World trade price growth has seen almost continuous deflation since early 2012, and its renewed weakness suggests even more slack in the global economy. More