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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Mar 04 2014

U.S. Consumer Under Pressure

Last week, U.S. retail chains posted their first quarterly decline in profits since the Great Recession. Although many attribute this weakness to an unseasonably cold winter season, it comes on the heels of disappointing data releases for jobs, retail sales and industrial production. Is the drop in retail chain profits merely a one-off, or is it indicative of an increasingly tapped-out consumer?
   
ECRI’s latest study provides a definitive answer to this question, weighing the pressures on American consumers today to determine whether or not they are likely to drive U.S. economic growth in the months ahead.

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Failure to Launch

ECRI February 8, 2014

As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More