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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Mar 11 2013

Uneven Global Inflation Pressures

In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, the world’s central banks embarked on unprecedented quantitative easing (QE) in hopes of shoring up sagging economic growth. But with growth continuing to disappoint, QE continues on, engendering concerns of runaway inflation down the road. In response, many central banks argue that the current slow-growth environment will keep inflation pressures at bay.

ECRI has just completed an in-depth study of the current state of the inflation cycle as well as inflation prospects for economies around the globe, including the U.S., the Eurozone, the U.K., Japan, China and India. This study, which includes ECRI’s future inflation gauges that anticipate cyclical turning points in inflation, provides key insights into the cyclical inflationary impact of QE around the world. Furthermore, the study reveals how much leeway central banks have in balancing growth and inflation, especially in instances where economic growth and inflation are not in sync.

Related News & Events

Job Growth is Slowing

Fox Business News March 8, 2013

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses how, even with the stronger-than-expected jobs report, year-over-year payroll jobs growth has fallen to an 18-month low. More

 

Recession in the Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 8, 2013

Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. See images and notes on the state of the business cycle. More