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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Oct 14 2013

U.S. Retail Sales Growth Prospects

Though September’s data was not released in October due to the government shutdown, the latest available figures show U.S. retail sales growth falling in August to its lowest reading in three months. At the time of release, some had speculated that the surprise decline was limited to certain sectors, and that overall sales would almost certainly pick up for the holiday shopping season. Now, with a prolonged government shutdown underway, retailers are turning pessimistic, increasingly worried about the impacts on important retail trading months.

ECRI’s latest report reviews the breadth of retail sales growth, indicating whether prolonged downturns have existed across industries for some time, or whether there is in fact strength to support an optimistic view about U.S. consumer spending for the months ahead.