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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Oct 02 2013

U.S. Construction Prospects

Earlier this month, stronger than expected construction spending growth as well as manufacturing data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) persuaded the consensus that U.S. economic growth prospects continue to improve. With regard to the latter, our research has shown that the changing relationship between ISM data and its targets can offer valuable insights about the trajectory of the manufacturing sector.

In addition, the growth rate of ECRI’s U.S. Leading Construction Index, which anticipates cyclical turning points in U.S. construction sector growth, already shows how the sector will perform in the months ahead. Considering that a vibrant construction sector has been a key pillar of arguments for stronger economic growth, it also provides important insights into the durability of the “second-half recovery” thesis.

Related News & Events

BBC Interview on Jobs

BBC September 6, 2013

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with the BBC to put today's jobs report in the context of larger trends. More