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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Nov 27 2013

U.S. Construction Outlook

Following its delayed release, building permits for October came in well above expectations. Since they are seen as a driver of housing activity, it supports the view of those who believe that U.S. construction sector growth will contribute to an economic growth rebound in 2014.

However, rather than looking at one indicator of construction activity, which can be distorted by monthly fluctuations, it is better to monitor ECRI’s U.S. Leading Construction Index (USLCI), which combines the most reliable indicators of construction activity into a leading index that consistently anticipates cyclical turning points in the construction sector. Thus, the growth rate of ECRI’s USLCI already provides clearer information about the sector’s growth prospects.