A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Feb 13 2014

U.K. Industrial Outlook

Last week, U.K. industrial production (UKIP) data surprised the consensus, with year-over-year growth declining for the second straight month after showing modest improvement since mid-2012. Is the recent data merely noise, or a sign of a cyclical downturn to come in the U.K. industrial sector?

ECRI has just updated its U.K. Leading Manufacturing Index (UKLMI), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in U.K. industrial production growth. The UKLMI shows what lies ahead for the U.K. industrial sector, clarifying whether the recent weak data is indicative of fading industrial growth prospects.

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Failure to Launch

ECRI February 8, 2014

As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More


Secular Stagnation

Fox Business News January 22, 2014

GDP growth (yoy) has been less than 2% for four straight quarters, something we've never seen except during or right after a recession. More